- BloombergNEF has revised its full year 2020 solar PV forecast making it the third time since January 2020 to have changed its mind due to the uncertainty created by the pandemic that’s yet to be tamed
- Under the most conservative scenario expecting pandemic to continue and bringing on more challenges, it forecasts 98 GW in 2020, that's 10 GW less than in its prior low-case estimate
- On the other hand if there is a single wave pandemic, in its most optimistic scenario PV installations BNEF believes demand could still reach 141 GW
- In its most likely scenario of a multi-wave pandemic the number should settle at 111 GW, BNEF estimates
With 118 GW New Capacity Installed In 2019, BloombergNEF Counts Solar PV As Leading Power Generating Source Last Year In New Report; Forecasts Between 140 GW To 178 GW Additions In 2022
(03. September 2020)
12% Annual Decline In Solar Investments During H1/2020, But Thanks To Offshore Wind, Global Renewables Investment Grew 5% YoY Despite COVID-19: BloombergNEF
(16. July 2020)
BloombergNEF: Utility Scale Solar PV LCOE Down To $50/MWh Since H2/2019, Expects Further Drop To Below $20/MWh For Best-In-Class Solar By 2030
(04. May 2020)
As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to rage in a number of countries while several economies are cautiously open up where the climax has passed, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BloombergNEF) has once again revised its estimates for new global solar installations in 2020.
On Twitter, BloombergNEF Head of Solar Jenny Chase responded to a TaiyangNews story on latest the PV forecast for 2020 by the International Energy Agency for over 90 GW as being the most conservative outlook for the global market. In a tweet, Chase said BloombergNEF has now changed its forecast for the following scenarios:
- Single wave pandemic: 141 GW
- Multi wave pandemic (central): 111 GW
- Enduring pandemic + other things go badly: 98 GW
In its conservative scenario, BloombergNEF’s estimates match the lastest worst-case forecast offered by PV InfoLink that sees in its pessimistic scenario new additions of 98.17 GW, while the neutral scenario would lead to 108.75 GW this year (see PV InfoLink Lowers 2020 Solar Demand To 108.8 GW).
In January 2020, BloombergNEF predicted between 121 GW to 154 GW of new capacity in 2020, but by March 2020 it had lowered the estimates to within 108 GW to 143 GW (see COVID-19: BNEF Cuts Down 2020 Global Solar Demand Forecast).
Other leading market intelligence firms that have changed their global solar forecasts for the current year include Wood Mackenzie and IHS Markit.