BloombergNEF Revises 2020 Solar Forecast, Again

COVID-19: After A 90 GW 2020 Global Solar Installation Forecast From IEA & 98.17 GW  Under Pessimistic Scenario By PV InfoLink, BloombergNEF Now Lowers Worst Case Scenario To 98 GW
04:15 PM (Beijing Time) - 22. May 2020
Presentation1

Key Takeaways

  • BloombergNEF has revised its full year 2020 solar PV forecast making it the third time since January 2020 to have changed its mind due to the uncertainty created by the pandemic that’s yet to be tamed
  • Under the most conservative scenario expecting pandemic to continue and bringing on more challenges, it forecasts 98 GW in 2020, that's 10 GW less than in its prior low-case estimate
  • On the other hand if there is a single wave pandemic, in its most optimistic scenario PV installations BNEF believes demand could still reach 141 GW
  • In its most likely scenario of a multi-wave pandemic the number should settle at 111 GW, BNEF estimates

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to rage in a number of countries while several economies are cautiously open up where the climax has passed, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BloombergNEF) has once again revised its estimates for new global solar installations in 2020.

On Twitter, BloombergNEF Head of Solar Jenny Chase responded to a TaiyangNews story on latest the PV forecast for 2020 by the International Energy Agency for over 90 GW as being the most conservative outlook for the global market. In a tweet, Chase said BloombergNEF has now changed its forecast for the following scenarios:

  • Single wave pandemic: 141 GW
  • Multi wave pandemic (central): 111 GW
  • Enduring pandemic + other things go badly: 98 GW

In its conservative scenario, BloombergNEF’s estimates match the lastest worst-case forecast offered by PV InfoLink that sees in its pessimistic scenario new additions of 98.17 GW, while the neutral scenario would lead to 108.75 GW this year (see PV InfoLink Lowers 2020 Solar Demand To 108.8 GW).

In January 2020, BloombergNEF predicted between 121 GW to 154 GW of new capacity in 2020, but by March 2020 it had lowered the estimates to within 108 GW to 143 GW (see COVID-19: BNEF Cuts Down 2020 Global Solar Demand Forecast).

Other leading market intelligence firms that have changed their global solar forecasts for the current year include Wood Mackenzie and IHS Markit.

 

 

Anu Bhambhani

Anu Bhambhani is the Senior News Editor of TaiyangNews

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Anu Bhambhani