GTM Pegs 2018 PV Demand At 104 GW

Global PV Installations In 2018 To Grow 6% To 104 GW, Estimates GTM Research, While China, US, India & Japan To Collectively Decline By 7%
05:34 AM (Beijing Time) - 17. April 2018
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China, US, Japan and India will collectively decline in their PV capacity addition in 2018 by 7%, as per GTM Research. But with new markets coming up, the market will still grow by 6% to 104 GW in 2018. (Source: GTM Research Global Solar Markets Service)

Key Takeaways

  • 2018 will be the first year when the world will see cumulative solar PV installations exceed 100 GW; a trend expected to continue through at least 2022, according to GTM Research's report Global Solar Demand Monitor: Q1 2018,
  • GTM Research predicts global demand of over 104 GW for 2018
  • China will hold 47% of the new installations in 2018, but number will fall down to 48 GW, from 53 GW in 2017
  • Marred by the concerns surrounding local trade tariffs, US and India are likely to install 10.6 GW and 7.1 GW, respectively
  • Middle East will grow 281% in 2018 to 4.7 GW of cumulative PV capacity

GTM Research has has upped its 2018 forecast to 104 GW in its Global Solar Demand Monitor: Q1 2018. The US market research firm follows several other industry analysts who have already forecasted over 100 GW new additions in 2018. SolarPower Europe had already estimated last year that the 2018 market would grow to 107.1 GW (see Looking Back & Forth). IHS Markit earlier this year also forecast 108 GW of new PV capacity in 2018 (see 108 GW Of Global PV Installations in 2018).

The 104 GW, said GTM, will represent 6% annual growth, although the top four markets are likely to collectively decline by 7%. China will fall from 53 GW in 2017 to 48 GW in 2018, yet will account for 47% of the global demand. One striking feature of Chinese installations in the current calendar year will be that annual distributed solar of over 20 MW capacity may exceed 50% of total annual installed capacity, for the first time in its history.

PV demand in two other big nations, US and India, will continue its struggle with their trade measures. That’s why GTM guides this year for 10.6 GW of solar PV for the US, which would be at last year’s level, and 7.1 GW for India, which would be YoY decrease.

On the other hand, Latin America is expected to add 5.6 GW of new PV capacity representing 61% YoY growth. Demand in the Middle East will grow 281% in 2018 to 4.7 GW . It will be also a big year for solar in Mexico where up to 1 GW of PV projects awarded through auctions are scheduled to come online (see Solar Wins Big).

In Africa, Egypt will see its Benban Solar Complex with 1.8 GW PV capacity come online this year. Other 1 GW markets for the first time will be Brazil as well as France. Spain will become a gigawatt-scale solar market after year again. (see GTM: Spanish PV Market To Lead Europe In 2018-19).

GTM Research expects at least 13 countries in 2018 to cross 1 GW of PV installations. (Source: GTM Research Global Solar Markets Service)
GTM Research expects at least 13 countries in 2018 to cross 1 GW of PV installations. (Source: GTM Research Global Solar Markets Service)

“The global solar industry is showing signs of maturity,” said GTM. It estimates that annual growth is expected to average 5% through 2022. While China will continue to be the largest market in the world, accounting for nearly half of the global demand, in the US, import tariffs are likely to affect 2019 demand.

More information on the report and purchase price is available with GTM Research.

 

Anu Bhambhani

Anu Bhambhani is the Senior News Editor of TaiyangNews

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