Egypt, Mexico, Brazil, Netherlands and Spain will join the group of countries that GTM Research expects to cross the 1 GW PV installation level in 2018, bringing the number of countries of this size to 13. (Source: GTM Research)
- Between 2017 and 2022, GTM Research report forecasts a cumulative 606 GW of PV to be installed globally, 2017 additions will reach 90 GW
- Eight countries will install 1 GW of new PV capacity in 2017, a number that will go up to 13 by the end of 2018
- European solar industry will see a revival in 2018, growing 35%, with Spain leading the charge installing 3.9 GW in 2018 and 2019
- In 2018, solar demand is expected to grow more than double in Latin America - and Mexico will contribute bulk of this demand out to 2022
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The global solar market is set to exceed 90 GW for the first time in 2017, growing 15.2% YoY before leveling off towards sustained growth of 5.6 % in 2018, according to the latest quarterly ‘Global Solar Demand Monitor Q3/2017’ from GTM Research.
In its Q3 report, the US consultancy now see a resurgence of European demand and the long-awaited takeoff of Latin American markets to drive growth next year as is believes China will peak this year and uncertainty around protectionist measures in the United States, India, and Turkey to stall demand in 2018.
With 3.9 GW of new PV capacity set to come online in 2018 and 2019 in Spain that was awarded during its August 2017 auction, the country is expected to lead the charge in helping Europe report a 35% annual growth in 2018, GTM Research believes. PV in Spain alone will skyrocket from 40 MW new capacity in 2017 to 1.4 GW in 2018.
Another European nation that will cross the 1 GW mark in 2018 is the Netherlands. “The European market is entering a phase of sustainable growth, no longer driven by the Feed-in- Tariff boom and bust cycle,” said Tom Heggarty, Senior Solar analyst at GTM Research. He describes Europe as moving toward a subsidy-free market and points to examples such as merchant projects commissioned in Italy, subsidy-free plants in development in the UK, and German PV auction prices moving closer to wholesale power prices. Recently, Wirsol & Hive Energy announced their plans to develop PV+storage project exceeding 350 MW capacity in Britain as a subsidy free plant (see Proposal For UK’s Biggest Solar Farm). However, this was considered an exception. As long as the regulatory environment is not adapted to flexible – which is often the case -
In all, authors of the report expect 8 nations to top the 1 GW mark in annual PV installations by the end of 2017. These are China, USA, India, Japan, Germany, France, Australia and South Korea. And, before 2018 comes to an end, 5 more nations will join the GW-level solar countries – Mexico, the Netherlands, Brazil, Spain and Egypt.
Mexico and Brazil will lead this growth for Latin America where solar demand is expected to more than double in 2018. The bulk of this demand will be in Mexico, where 60% of the projects will have utility-scale and 40% will be distributed projects.
“Brazil is about to become a 1 GW market on the heels of developing several large utility-scale projects tendered in 2014,” said Manan Parikh, GTM Research senior analyst. “The cancellation auction didn’t achieve the desired results, leaving almost 80% of canceled capacity (800 MW) in play to still be developed or flipped with a penalty.”
Egypt too will grow strongly to become a 1.4 GW strong market, experiencing five fold growth between 2017 and 2018, said GTM Research. More than 1.5 GW of utility scale projects here have reached financial close, with major help pouring in from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the International Finance Corporation (IFC) (see $635 Million From IFC For Egyptian PV Park).
Led by these agencies, an international development bank financing consortium has committed almost $2 billion in loans for the Egyptian solar market. The majority of these projects is expected to be realized in late 2018 and early 2019.
The GTM Research report forecasts 90 GW in 2017 and a cumulative 606 GW of PV to be installed globally between 2017 and 2022. Earlier this year, in its Q1 report, GTM Research had projected the world to install 85 GW in 2017 (see GTM Forecasts 85 GW Demand In 2017), before it brought down its estimates by 4 GW, predicting 81 GW of new capacity additions in 2017, in its Q2 report in August (see GTM Scales Down 2017 New PV Capacity Projection).
The Q3 report is for download on the GTM Research website and costs $2,995.