After Poland's TSO PSE declared the country's cumulative installed solar PV capacity till June 1, 2020 reached 1.95 GW, the Institute for Renewable Energy (IEO) released its annual report to forecast the numbers to grow to 2.5 GW by the end of 2020 with many bright years ahead. (Source: IEO)
- In its annual report for Polish PV market, the IEO says Poland will have installed a total of 2.5 GW capacity by the end of 2020
- This would mean 25% growth in annual installations this year putting the country on the EU’s top 5 PV markets
- By 2025, Poland is likely to have an aggregate of 8 GW solar installed, exceeding the nation’s official target of 7.8 GW by 2030
Renewable Energy Institute IEO Of Poland Says Country’s Cumulative Solar PV Installations Crossed 700 MW Mark Till May 2019; Expects 1 GW New Deployments In 2019 For Total Capacity To Reach 1.5 GW By Year End
(14. July 2019)
The Instytut Energetyki Odnawialnej or Institute for Renewable Energy (IEO) in Poland sees the country reporting a cumulative installed solar PV capacity of 2.5 GW by the end of 2020 growing from 1.5 GW at the end of 2019. In its annual report about the Polish PV market titled Photovoltaic market in Poland 2020, the IEO forecasts the market to increase annual installations by up to 25% in 2020 mainly due to the micro-installations segment, which comprises commercial and industrial (C&I) installations.
The future is even brighter as the report guides for total installed power to reach 7.8 GW by 2025 ‘which means that already in 2025 installed PV power will exceed the power assumed in KPEiK (Poland’s National Energy & Climate Plan) for 2030’. It also means that Poland will install at least 1 GW per year in average over the next five years.
En route to the 7.8 GW capacity, the IEO says the installed capacity can reach 6.6 GW already by 2023. Major contributor to this growth will be large scale solar power projects the country awarded during its 2018-19 auctions that are scheduled to start coming online.
However, it adds that the winners of the 2018 renewable energy auction are likely to postpone their project implementation till May 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic which would make 2021 and 2022 the years when the PV sector of Poland may experience an ‘investment boom’.
In 2021-22, IEO calculates about 2.8 GW of PV farms to come online changing the market dynamics from being a prosumer centered place to a balanced one with equal participation of prosumers and big solar power plants.
So far, the Polish PV market is being driven by the prosumer category accounting for 70% or 640 MW of the cumulative 1.5 GW installed by end of 2019, as per IEO estimates. In 2019, annual additions added up to about 900 MW placing the country in the top 5 solar PV markets in the European Union, a position IEO says it will continue to maintain in 2020 as well.
“The large increase of micro-installations in the first quarter of this year means that despite the onset of a pandemic (and the first signs of an economic slowdown), prosumers are still interested in investing in photovoltaics, and the global pandemic limits the sector’s development to a relatively small extent,” the report writers claim.
On June 10, 2020, the country’s transmission system operator PSE announced on its Twitter account that till June 1, 2020 Poland’s total installed solar PV capacity reached 1.953 GW growing 176.38% YoY and by 6.57% between May 2020 to June 2020.