Chinese solar PV market intelligence firm PV InfoLink has once again offered a revised guidance for the year 2020 expecting global solar module demand – this time upward – to grow to 126.2 GW. It attributes this change in guidance to COVID-19 induced impacts on the solar sector having gradually subsided and better demand for PV during H2/2020.

It happens to be at least the 5^th time this year that PV InfoLink has revised its 2020 guidance which has followed the ups and downs in the solar market over 9M/2020. In September 2020, it lowered the guidance from 121.5 GW to 117.1 GW factoring in tight polysilicon supply and resurgence risks of COVID-19 in Europe, US, Japan, South Korea and Middle East (see PV InfoLink Lowers Global Module Demand Forecast For 2020).

Going forward, expecting a brighter future for the future of solar PV globally, the analysts expect 2021 to witness global module demand of 143.7 GW, growing 15% over 2020. For this solid forecast, PV InfoLink lists its reasons as projects pushed back to 2021 due to pandemic related delays as well as developments in each country as major driving forces.

China, in 2021, says PV InfoLink will enter grid parity under the 14^th Five-Year Plan and likely to report 20% growth, and Europe with its commitment to the Paris Agreement will also grow due to strong demand. In the US, as the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) steps down and states pursue their renewable energy targets, analysts see the market reporting over 30% growth. India too will bounce back from the ‘virus slump’ growing over 60% annually.

“These developments will push module demand toward 100 GW. Traditional markets aside, emerging markets are also worth noting. Asia Pacific will maintain stable growth, while Latina America, where electricity cost is low and the Middle East, where utility-scale projects are under way, will witness 30-60% growth, contributing to solar boom in 2021,” explained PV InfoLink analysts.

Recently, the International Energy Agency (IEA) also revised its annual solar PV installed capacity forecast for 2020 to around 107 GW under main case scenario that could go up to 120 GW under an accelerated scenario (see IEA Expects 107 GW Solar PV Addition In 2020).