- WoodMackenzie has published its Asia Pacific Solar PV Market Outlook 2021
- Wood Mackenzie’s analysts believe till 2030, Asia Pacific will have 1,500 GW new solar PV capacity getting installed
- Major additions will take place in China that will account for over 60% of the 1,500 GW
- India will be next with 138 GW, however due to COVID-19 it is unlikely to achieve 100 GW target by 2022
- Indonesia is likely to have the highest growth with installations adding up to 8.5 GW
Come 2030, and Asia Pacific region could triple to 1,500 GW of installed solar PV capacity, thanks to nations here bound by their carbon-neutral targets to venture deep into clean energy sources, states market research firm Wood Mackenzie.
Analysts believe distributed solar will account for 51% of all new installations in the top 10 markets of Asia Pacific by 2030, due to land constraints and its improving competitiveness against rising tariffs.
In its latest report titled Asia Pacific solar PV market outlook 2021, Wood Mackenzie analysts see China leading the wave, accounting for over 60% of the 1,500 GW with the addition of 619 GW during this decade, till 2030. It installed 5.33 GW in Q1/2021 taking its cumulative installed PV capacity to over 259 GW (see China Installed 5.33 GW New Solar PV Capacity In Q1/2021).
It was be followed by India installing 138 GW by 2030, but the COVID-19 pandemic related disruption will ensure the country won’t be able to meet its 100 GW solar PV capacity target by 2022. Analysts point out that despite the non-stop tender roll outs, completion rates of projects here remain low.
Despite high costs of solar in Japan, the country will grow its share to 13% of the total expected capacity with the addition of 63 GW over the next decade, cementing its position as the 3rd largest nation in this space in Asia Pacific. Recently, Japan’s Environment Ministry proposed adding 20 GW annual solar power target for FY2030 in a new draft, to grow its cumulative capacity to over 108 GW (see Japan Eyes Over 108 GW Solar Power Capacity By 2030).
While South Korea is expected to add 58 GW to claim 4th position, Vietnam will be on 5th spot with an estimated addition of 45 GW, after having installed 5.5 GW in 2019 and 13.8 GW in 2020. “By 2030, Vietnam will have the second highest solar PV penetration in power generation in the region. At 15% share of its total power generation, Vietnam is second only to Australia and will lead Japan,” according to Wood Mackenzie Consultant Xin Zhang. He does expect installations to slow down in Vietnam over next 5 years before picking up pace again due to the ‘gap between subsidy phase-out and economical grid parity’.
Australia’s focus on green hydrogen and state level renewables target will lead to addition of 23 GW of PV by 2030. It is Indonesia that Wood Mackenzie sees emerging as the fastest growing solar PV market in Asia Pacific over this decade. Driven by a $600 million Asian Development Bank (ADB) loan in 2020 for Indonesian state-owned utility PLN, lower distributed solar fees, market reforms, and renewables targets, Wood Mackenzie sees the market growing from 300 MW to 8.5 GW by 2030 (see ADB Loan For Indonesia To Promote Renewable Energy).
The Asia Pacific solar PV market outlook 2021 report by Wood Mackenzie can be purchased on its website for $3,990.