Germany Needs 385 GW Solar PV Capacity To Meet 2045 Goal

• A new report by Stiftung Klimaneutralität, Agora Energiewende and Agora Verkehrswende sees Germany requiring 385 GW of installed solar PV capacity by 2045 to meet its climate neutral target
• They expect electricity consumption growing by close to 60% from 2030 to 2045, reaching around 1,000 TWh
• Hydrogen is likely to replace natural gas as the most important energy source for dispatchable power generation after 2040, and after 2030, solar PV and wind will specifically get focus

After scrutiny by Germany's top court, the federal government has recently agreed to aim to achieve climate neutrality for the country by 2045, and also plans to propose to lower emissions by 65% by 2030, raising it from current target of 55%, expanding it further to 90% by 2040.

In a new study commissioned by Climate Neutrality Foundation or Stiftung Klimaneutralität, Agora Energiewende and Agora Verkehrswende, and prepared by Prognos AG, Öko-Institut and the Wuppertal Institute, the stakeholders see around 30 GW annual renewable market opportunity for the country by 2045. At the same time, they expect a building renovation rate of 1.75% annually and a rapid ramp-up of hydrogen technology.

According to key takeaways shared by the trio in the report titled Towards a Climate-Neutral Germany By 2045, the installed capacity of PV systems required for the country by 2045 is 385 GW, and will increase from 45 GW in 2018. By 2030, it should reach 150 GW as renewable energy accounts for around 70% of gross electricity demand. Solar PV technology will generate 355 TWh in net power generation by 2045, according to the analysts.

For onshore wind the opportunity is for 145 GW and for offshore wind the total capacity will be 70 GW for the European nation's energy industry.

Their assessment sees electricity consumption growing by almost 60% from 2030 to 2045, reaching around 1,000 TWh mainly due to further electrification and increasing domestic production of hydrogen. Post 2030, focus will almost entirely be on wind energy and PV technologies. Hydrogen is expected to replace natural gas as the most important energy source for dispatchable power generation after 2040 coming in to support power generation when solar PV or wind energy is not sufficient.

The full report will be published in German language in June 2021, but the research collaborators offer a free download of the report's 32-page executive summary, available in English.

In October 2020, Stiftung Klimaneutralität, Agora Energiewende and Agora Verkehrswende recommended the government increase solar PV capacity target for the country to a total of 150 GW by 2030 and 355 GW by 2050, with an annual addition of 10 GW between 2021 and 2030 (see New Study Recommends 10 GW Annual PV Addition For Germany).