A new report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BloombergNEF) sees India reaching net-zero by 2050 with as much as 3 TW of wind and solar capacity, ably supported by complementing technologies for which it will require an annual average investment of $438 billion till mid-century, stretching to a total of $12.7 trillion.  

Currently, the country’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets 2070 to report a net-zero status with 500 GW non-fossil fuel generation capacity till 2030 (see Indian Cabinet Approves NDC For Paris Agreement).  

Under the net zero scenario (NZS) of New Energy Outlook: India Report of BloombergNEF, wind and solar power generation account for 80% of the country’s total electricity supply in 2050, while nuclear provides 9%. 

This 3 TW share will be around 1.3 TW more than in the base case economic transition scenario (ETS) which is consistent with a global temperature rise of 2.6° by 2050. Even under the ETS, India will see solar and wind becoming the dominant source of electricity supply with a 67% share by the target year.   

“BNEF’s analysis finds that maximizing deployment of solar and wind, supplemented by additions of nuclear, energy storage and carbon capture and storage (CCS) for thermal power plants, is the cheapest way for India to increase electricity access while decarbonizing its power supply,” reads the report.   

In any case, the cost of electricity generation from new solar and wind power plants will be cheaper than the running cost of existing coal plants by mid-2030s.   

Under the ETS, India’s industrial carbon emissions will surpass the power sector by early 2040s, driven by the growth in steel, aluminum, petrochemical and cement sectors.  

However, under NZS, India’s industrial sector emissions peak in 2031 and then tumble downward in the mid-2030s thanks to the use of hydrogen and carbon capture to decarbonize steel, cement and petrochemical production.   

While the country produces hydrogen with fossil fuels, by 2050, under the report’s NZS, India will produce green hydrogen via ‘flexible grid-connected’ electrolyzers powered primarily by renewables.  

To get the country on the path to achieving net zero by 2050, analysts recommend following 5 key policy action areas that need to be addressed immediately:  

• Scale up grid investments to enable a renewables-heavy power system 
• Scale up investments in renewables by tapping into all sources of financing as BloombergNEF estimates an annual investment of $90 billion until 2050 to build low carbon capacity.  
• Reduce reliance on fossil fuel plants and boost carbon capture technologies for which policy support is a must to incentivize manufacturing and their use.  
• Aim for peak industrial emissions within a decade. Use of green hydrogen in steel production alone has the potential to abate 54% of emissions between 2022 and 2050 under NZS.  
• Full electrification is the key to eliminating road transport emissions which is the country’s largest emitter in the transport sector, surpassing shipping and aviation.   

Complete report is available for free download on BloombergNEF’s website.