·Energy crisis and high electricity costs are accelerating solar adoption, with strong policy support and auction programs driving large-scale deployment
·Solar growth spans all segments, led by residential rooftop demand, expanding C&I installations, and multi-GW utility-scale projects under GEAP
The Philippines is forecast to install 19.6 GW of solar PV capacity by 2030, driven by residential and large-scale PV auction programs
The Philippines is undergoing an energy transition amid fossil fuel shortages and a National Energy Emergency (NEE) declaration. Retail electricity tariffs in the market have been rising since2023, given the country’s heavy dependence on imported fossil fuels. To address this, the government is promoting Renewable Energy through favorable policies and incentives, with a major focus on solar PV.
The government targets 35% renewable energy share by 2030 and 50% by 2050, with solar expected to contribute around 21 GW by 2030 and potentially 50 GW by 2050. To achieve this target, it has rolled out various programs including Green Energy Auction Program (GEAP), duty-free solar imports, net-metering, income tax holidays and VAT incentives, subsidized solar financing schemes, irrigation, and rural electrification initiatives.
Rooftop solar PV installations are increasing across residential and commercial & Industrial (C&I) sectors because of high retail electricity tariffs. Large-scale PV installations have risen since the introduction of GEAP. Nearly 10 GW of solar capacity has been awarded through GEAP auction rounds since 2022, making the Philippines one of Southeast Asia's largest solar development markets. Storage is also gaining momentum, with increasing deployments of Energy Storage Systems (ESS) across the country. The Department of Energy (DOE) is also integrating storage requirements into its future rounds of GEAP and fast-tracking upcoming auctions from GEAP 6 through GEAP 9.
With the changing market dynamics and sizeable pipeline of projects, the Philippines is forecast to install 19.6 GW of PV capacity by 2030. The residential segment is expected to see strong growth, driven by elevated retail electricity prices. For C&I, demand for larger rooftop systems in the 1-3 MW range is projected to grow, supported by long-term power purchase agreement (PPA) models. At the utility scale, project execution will be led by GEAP 4, with around 6.4 GW of awarded capacity driving installations over the forecast period.
