Africa's contribution to the global solar PV capacity of 350 GW in 2023 was only 1%, according to Africa Solar Industry Association (AFSIA). Yet, it says the 3.7 GW annual additions last year make it the best performance ever recorded for solar in the continent.
It represents a 16% annual increase over 3.1 GW in 2022. This estimated addition in 2023, says AFSIA in its Solar Outlook 2024 report, expands the continent's aggregate PV capacity to exceed 16 GW. South Africa makes up 7.78 GW of this total.
However, the report writers point out that this 16 GW is an 'underestimation' of the real capacity since it does not take into account residential installations and is based only on the projects identified by the association.
Of the 3.7 GW, the South African market alone accounted for 79% or 2.96 GW capacity in 2023 in the continent. A total of 75% of this was installed by commercial and industrial (C&I) segment.
According to AFSIA, C&I installations in South Africa surpassed new utility-scale capacity in this market.
South Africa was far ahead of the other markets with the next in line being Burkina Faso that added 92 MW, followed by 84 MW in Mauritania, 69.5 MW in Kenya and 40 MW in the Central African Republic (CAR).
The report writers point out that South Africa has been home to at least 29% of all solar installed in the continent at any point of time since 2014.
What works for solar in South Africa is not only the presence of many experienced solar companies and a solid financing environment, but also the need for people to adopt solar quickly as the country faces significant loadshedding.
Its opposite, namely the absence of a mature enabling environment in terms of solar and financing experts and adequate policy, hampers the growth of this clean energy technology in the rest of the continent.
Solar PV has been growing in other established markets of China, Europe and the US due to government programs and tenders. These markets mainly look at increasing clean energy supply to meet demand on the grid at cheapest cost while reducing carbon emissions.
The report writers believe that new solar additions in Africa are mostly driven by economic decisions of the business community. A decline in the price of solar and storage technologies, along with a simultaneous decline in reliable utility-supplied electricity, provides them with a suitable alternative. This trend is likely to grow in the future.
They explain, "This is great news for the continent's economic activity, but this also becomes a serious threat to national utility companies that have been struggling financially for years and whose financial balance is not going to improve with more and more large customers covering a large portion of their electricity consumption with their own solar energy and/or going completely off-grid."
Global interest in green hydrogen is growing by the day, especially using solar power resources of Africa. At the end of 2022, announced green hydrogen projects in the continent totaled 52 GW. The number went up to 95.65 GW by 2023-end, comprising 57 GW in Mauritania.
While not all of it may eventually be realized, AFSIA report says the push from developed economies to import cheap green hydrogen for their countries will boost the continent's growth.
The complete report can be purchased by non-members of AFSIA on its website.
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