Taiwanese market intelligence firm TrendForce says 210 mm (including 210R) has become the next mainstream standard for solar wafer size. The cumulative shipments of solar modules based on this size had surpassed 260 GW by Q1/2024. Large-format modules are now forecast to account for more than 85% of the market this year.
Taking a cue from the widespread adoption of this size across all segments of the industry chain, leading solar module manufacturers are scaling up the production of 210 mm modules (including 210R) based on n-type technology. Currently, 7 out of the top 10 module makers are investing in it.
Wafers
In terms of the production capacity of large format wafers, their share has risen to nearly 99%, thus becoming a predominant choice. As per the analysts, the production capacity for 210 mm (including 210R) wafers has reached 457 GW, accounting for 38.46% of the total. This is a 46.33% annual growth over 2022. By 2027, it is expected to further expand to 56.26%.
TrendForce says the aggregate annual production capacity of large-format wafers is likely to expand to 1.174 TW by the end of 2024. This will lead to an acceleration in the market penetration of 210R rectangular wafers from H2/2024.
Rectangular wafers were initially introduced by China's Trina Solar in 2022. Since then, these have become a key innovation for companies aiming to improve module efficiency, according to TrendForce.
Cells
This is also expanding the share of large-format, n-type TOPCon solar cells whose share of production capacity in large-format cells is forecast to approach 99% in 2024. Analysts forecast the production capacity of large-format cells to reach 1.549 TW, comprising 1.296 TW of 210mm cells.
Of this, the share of n-type cell production is likely to increase to 1.078 TW by this year-end and will be dominated by TOPCon cell technology with about 909 GW, accounting for about 58% of the n-type cell market.
"The integration of 210mm and n-type can further improve conversion efficiency, increase single wafer power and improve other performance metrics, effectively meeting industry demand for higher-power modules. Consequently, the demand for 210mm n-type cells is expected to continue rising," point out the analysts.
Modules
"The commercial value of 210mm modules has been increasingly recognized by leading manufacturers," explain TrendForce analysts. "The 210mm product technology platform has seamlessly integrated with various advanced technologies as a result of its advanced, compatible and open nature, continuously unlocking new opportunities for reducing costs and improving efficiency. The adoption of 700W+ products has become an unstoppable force, with leading companies entering this market."
Some of the leading manufacturers with more than 700 W n-type modules based on large-format include Trina Solar, which is credited with having introduced 700 W modules for the 1st time. Since then, several other leading companies like JinkoSolar, JA Solar, Canadian Solar, Tongwei, Risen Energy and GCL have started producing 700 W+ modules. Trina claims to have now shipped over 120 GW of 210 mm modules.
For large-format modules, TrendForce anticipates their production capacity reaching 1.365 TW this year, representing a market share of about 96.7%. Out of these, 210 mm modules will have about 1.105 TW share, growing 51.8% from 2023. The share of n-type modules is also expected to expand from 26.22% in 2023 to 68.93% in 2024.