As the world sets about to meet its decarbonization targets, analysts at Wood Mackenzie expect strong demand for renewables, mainly solar PV and wind energy. Between 2024 and 2033, they forecast more than 5.4 TW AC new solar and wind capacity to come online with solar PV accounting for 59% of this capacity.
Comprising 3.8 TW AC solar PV and 1.6 TW AC wind power, this will expand the cumulative global total to 8 TW AC by the forecast year. It also expects energy storage capacity, excluding pumped hydro, to grow by 640% thanks to nearly 1 TW likely to be added during the forecast period.
New solar and wind capacity installations in 2023 grew to around 500 GW. Wood Mackenzie now expects it to grow to an average of 560 GW over the 10-year outlook.
In terms of DC capacity, analysts project 4.7 TW DC solar PV capacity to be built over the 10-year period with China accounting for 50% of this.
"Ultra-low module prices intensified the rate of solar deployments last year in Europe and China and will continue to do so in the near-term," said Principal Analyst, Distributed Solar PV at Wood Mackenzie, Juan Monge. "But grid constraints and a return to lower power prices and subsequently lower capture rates will impact markets and other regions."
Post 2026, Monge forecasts a 2-year slowdown citing 'an expected' pause in development activity before the next round of procurement drives higher deployment.
According to the analysis, maximizing solar PV capacity or even wind over the next 10 years will depend on additional technology developments. Some of the recommended measures are expanding grid infrastructure, incentivizing flexibility solutions, transportation and heating electrification.
Meanwhile, Wood Mackenzie's wind energy capacity forecast is for China to contribute an average of 91.5 GW annual additions with the rest of the world adding 85 GW annually.
For the energy storage market, the forecast is for cumulative capacity to reach 159 GW/358 GWh by 2024-end and grow by an additional 926 GW/2,789 GWh over the next 10 years.
Earlier in June 2024, BMI of Fitch Solutions said by 2033, solar PV will account for 4.62 TW total installed capacity, expanding from 1.71 TW in 2024, driven by distributed solar (see Distributed Solar To Drive Solar Capacity Growth In Major Markets).