The world is far off the mark to achieve the 11 TW global renewable energy target by 2030 comprising 5,457 GW of solar PV capacity, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).
Capacity additions will need to increase from 473 GW in 2023, comprising 73% of solar energy, to an average of almost 1.1 TW annually by 2030 for which urgent policy intervention is required. G20 alone must expand their renewable capacity from under 3 TW in 2022 to 9.4 TW by 2030, accounting for over 80% of the global total (see Over 120 Nations For 11 TW Global RE Target By 2030).
Increase in renewable energy use must be coupled with a corresponding decline in fossil fuel reliance, which is also lagging, according to the IRENA report titled Tracking COP28 outcomes: Tripling renewable power capacity by 2030.
Annual investments too must increase from $570 billion in 2023 to $1,550 billion on an average between 2024 and 2030 to achieve an additional 7.2 TW renewable additions.
"As the custodian agency, IRENA monitors related progress across key indicators every year. Our data confirms that progress continues to fall short, and the energy transition remains off track," says IRENA Director-General Francesco La Camera.
There are disproportionate low levels of investments in developing countries even though their renewable potential is high. There was a record of over $2 trillion energy transition related investment in 2023, emerging markets and developing economies accounted for over half of global investments. Sub-Saharan Africa received less than 1.5% of the global renewable investment last year.
Fossil fuels, on the other hand, received $1.3 trillion in subsidies in 2022, equivalent to the annual investment required in renewable generation capacity to achieve a 3-fold increase by 2030.
IRENA recommends a series of policy initiatives to act as course correction measures to bring the clean energy transition for the world on track.
These include modernizing and expanding infrastructure, establishing regulatory frameworks and market design fit for the renewables' era; and building institutional and human resource capabilities.
Accelerating deployment of all technologies in all geographies is equally essential for a balanced growth. Currently, it is primarily solar and wind that dominate but again these are concentrated in a limited number of markets, as IRENA points out. Bloomberg New Energy Finance too believes that a balanced growth of other renewable energy sources is required to address global carbon emissions (see BNEF: Solar Can Triple Global Renewables Capacity By 2030).
Multilateral development banks and international financial institutions need to step up their efforts in the wake of shrinking public finance for renewable energy deployment.
IRENA minces no words when it says, "There are no 'magic bullets' or shortcuts available; global action must be focused, disciplined and aligned around key priorities."
The complete IRENA report is available on IRENA's website.