A new ACP & S&P report expects the US solar market to install over 32 GW AC new PV capacity in 2024
It will be driven by the rush to install modules sourced during the anti-circumvention tariff moratorium
Barring 2025, when the installations drop to over 27 GW AC, the US solar market will grow by 6.6% CAGR till 2030
The US is expected to report a record year for solar PV installations exceeding 32 GW AC capacity in 2024, while total installations grow 16% by 2030, according to the new bi-annual Solar Market Monitor report of the American Clean Power Association (ACP).
Prepared by S&P Global Commodity Insights for ACP, the report attributes the record high number of 32.125 GW AC this year to a rush to install modules imported during the anti-circumvention tariff moratorium by the deadline of December 2024. The market grew by a record 33.8 GW in 2023, according to ACP (see US Utility-Scale Clean Energy Capacity Grew By 33.8 GW In 2023).
Once this rush is over, installations next year are anticipated to drop by 16% year-on-year (YoY) to over 27 GW AC, then recovering with 30.22 GW AC in 2026. Thereafter, the numbers increase with an expected compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.6% till 2030.
The module price decline has lowered the average utility-scale solar levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) to $46/MWh in 2024. The report writers project it to decrease to $38/MWh by 2030. While LCOE is expected to continue to decline with capital costs going down and capacity factors going up in the long term, new tariffs may increase capital costs and drive up LCOE in the short term.
ACP reiterates the broader industry that while the incoming administration under Donald Trump could attempt to change or remove certain portions of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the IRA is ‘unlikely to be completely undone.’ Yet, political uncertainty remains under Trump.
The complete report is available to the ACP members on its website for a discounted price of $2,999.