Chinese solar module manufacturers are slowly seeing the impacts of inventory pile-up in their various export markets, especially Europe, says InfoLink Consulting. Despite 14.5% MoM and 55.9% YoY increase in their module exports in September 2023, companies may bring down prices further to achieve shipment targets.
"In the fourth quarter, module makers may cut prices for orders to achieve shipment targets while ramping up new capacities. However, their production plans show a wait-and-see attitude, indicating a market less enthusiastic than expected," explains InfoLink. "Coupled with weakening demand in Europe, the module import-hub, inventory draws from non-China markets in the fourth quarter of this year can hardly return to levels of the first half."
Of the 19.8 GW solar modules China exported in September 2023, Europe was the largest market with 7.6 GW, down from 8.2 GW in August 2023 (see China Shipped 17.3 GW Solar Modules In August 2023). This drop was driven by large inventory draws from Europe during H1/2023 leading to inventory accumulation. Module prices in the spot market were around €0.11/W to $0.145/W at the end of October 2023.
In H2/2023, demand here will be 'evidently lower' compared to the 1st half of the year, according to InfoLink analysts.
Altogether, Europe imported 85.3 GW Chinese modules during 9M/2023, reflecting a jump of 25.8% YoY out of 157.7 GW Chinese companies exported during the period.
With 7 GW modules imported from China—58% MoM and 270% YoY increase—demand in Asia Pacific was led by India that took 2 GW alone. For 9M/2023, the region imported 33.4 GW.
The 112% MoM increase in India shipments was due to decrease in module prices. Projects, which had been postponed due to high module prices and Basic Customs Duty (BCD) implementation, are now going under construction. The demand is expected to remain elevated till March 31, 2024 when the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) extension will remain in place (see India Provides Relief From ALMM Obligation).
The Americas imported 2.7 GW during the reporting month, having gone up 29% YoY and unchanged from August 2023, taking cumulative imports to 22 GW during 9M.
Led by the residential market in the face of low module prices, Brazil remains on top of the export destinations in the region. During H2/2023, demand in this market is likely to be driven by utility-scale PV, state the analysts.
At 1.8 GW, the Middle East increased its Chinese module imports by 19% MoM and 139% YoY, taking the cumulative for 9M this year to 10.3 GW. Saudi Arabia alone took 1.2 GW of the shipments with large scale PV capacity being auctioned here.
Africa shipped in 582 MW Chinese modules in September 2023, reflecting 22% MoM and 117% YoY growth. The cumulative capacity between January 2023 and September 2023 added up to 6.6 GW. South Africa was the major source of demand.
Nonetheless, China's dominance as the world's largest supplier of the solar PV supply chain is likely to remain intact till at least 2026 as the rest of the world takes time to catch up, according to Wood Mackenzie (see Cannot Eliminate Dependence On China For Wafers & Cells).