China’s shift to market-based pricing by mid-2025 will lead to a solar installation rush in the country
TrendForce expects this to increase prices across the solar supply chain from polysilicon to modules in Q2
A price drop can be expected in Q3, as installations slow down and intense competition puts downward pressure
As the Chinese government strikes down its popular fixed feed-in-tariff (FIT) scheme for solar from mid-2025, TrendForce analysts forecast an installation rush with a ‘moderate’ demand peak in March and April 2025. This will likely push up prices across the solar value chain in Q2 2025.
China recently announced its decision to transition its renewable energy sector from an FIT-based to a market-based pricing mechanism from June 1, 2025. This will bring in auction-based pricing for the wind and solar power sectors, which will bring down prices for electricity generation but also boost prices for PV components (see World’s Biggest Solar Market Moving Towards CfD Mechanism).
The installation rush expected owing to this, especially in the distributed generation segment, is expected to push up prices for the solar supply chain. While polysilicon suppliers have been maintaining low utilization rates, prices are likely to rise to CNY 45 ($6.20)/kg. Manufacturers may want to make use of the cheaper hydroelectric power supply in the summer season to boost production, which may bring down prices, according to the Taiwan-based market intelligence firm TrendForce.
Wafer prices will also rise significantly over the next few months as demand improves in China and other regions. The highest price gain is expected for 210R n-type (G12R n-type), whose price will go up by 3.57% to CNY 1.45 ($0.20)/pc in April on a month-on-month (MoM) basis. A ‘sharp drop’ in demand is anticipated in Q3.
As for cells, higher module prices push up cell prices. In April this year, TrendForce expects the largest price increase of 6.67% MoM for G12R TOPCon. Solar cells are expected to see a price decline starting in May this year, thanks to increased competition in this space.
Module demand is being led by the distributed generation segment, and TrendForce believes distributors are stockpiling inventory aggressively to fulfill it, ensuring that prices don’t change much.
Spot prices for modules peaked at CNY 0.73 ($0.10)/W, and is averaging around CNY 0.70 ($0.096)/W. “Demand in other regions is stable, while traders in markets like Pakistan have increased imports, fearing that China’s rush to install will constrain global supply,” points out TrendForce.
Once the installation rush is over, demand may fall sharply by Q2 2025. Prices will also drop to CNY 0.70/W or even lower with intense competition.
According to the TaiyangNews PV Price Index, 5 downstream products recorded price increases during calendar week 12 this year (see TaiyangNews PV Price Index—2025—CW12).
German online module trading platform pvXchange believes high-efficiency solar modules are in high demand in Europe. Prices will also rise as delivery delays are expected from major Chinese brands (see Production Cuts Starting To Drive Solar PV Module Prices Up After 2 Years).