After an insightful discussion on the trends in residential rooftop solar, day 2 of the TaiyangNews Virtual Conference on Distributed Solar—Optimizing PV Power Supply for Homes & Businesses was dedicated to the commercial and industrial (C&I) segment.
Day 1 of the conference focused on the residential solar PV market and technology (see Day 1: TaiyangNews Virtual Conference On Distributed Solar).
Wood Mackenzie's Principal Analyst, Distributed Solar, Europe Juan Monge discussed the scenario for C&I solar PV in the next decade, from a European context, discussing rooftop mandates to energy communities in his keynote on day 2.
Monge pegged the installations for the C&I solar PV segment to see an annual average growth rate of 5% until 2033. This will represent a 216% annual growth from 110 GW DC cumulative C&I PV for all of Europe in 2023 to 346 GW DC by 2033.
The major markets leading this growth will be Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Italy, and France. While Germany and France will get a boost from collective self-consumption, thanks to a majority apartment population, the Netherlands will drop 30% during the forecast period due to the net metering phaseout.
Nonetheless, declining retail rates, increasing interest rates and inflation were identified as the major factors deflating the distributed generation (DG) PV boom in Europe. For a steady growth, this segment will need to hedge against energy price volatility which will be a crucial growth driver, along with the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPDB), and boost electrification trends, added Monge.
He, however, pointed out that the success of the EPDB will depend on member states since it is a directive, not a regulation.
JinkoSolar's Head of PV and RESS Product Management Johanna Bonilla shared the company's Neo-Green solar modules produced at its zero carbon footprint manufacturing facilities. The vertically integrated leading solar PV manufacturer from China is now looking at a sustainable supply chain.
As companies around the globe commit to reducing their carbon emissions, and even completely eliminating them as part of the RE100 initiative, JinkoSolar sees an opportunity here from a business perspective.
At the same time, JinkoSolar itself has committed to increasing its energy productivity by 30% by 2025 under EP100 and had its net-zero targets validated by the Science Based Targets Initiative (SBTi).
According to Bonilla, JinkoSolar's 2 crystal pulling and wafer factories in China's Leshan (Sichuan), along with the solar cell fab in Chuxiong (Yunnan) and the module assembly factory in Shangrao (Jiangxi) are zero carbon factories. It is from here that it rolls out Neo Green modules with all using TOPCon technology.
For the residential segment, it plans to have an annual production capacity of 7 GW for Neo-Green modules by Q3/2024, while for utility-scale, the capacity currently operational is 4.7 GW/year. By Q3/2024, it targets to add another 2.2 GW to utility Neo-Green capacity.
For the C&I segment, Bonilla said JinkoSolar produces SunGiga energy storage systems (ESS) in 2 variants of 215 kWh and 344 kWh. It targets these for PV-enabled charging stations, and for warehouses, factories, among other applications.
JA Solar's Head of European Technical Team Ignacio Espinosa delved into the C&I rooftop solar segment with the company's new standard module. He called the company's JAM60D42/LB module for the C&I segment with 530 W output and 22.7% efficiency the most powerful C&I product in the market currently. It uses dimensions of 2063 x 1134 mm, larger than the competing products.
The new product, based on TOPCon cell technology, is compatible with all C&I inverters and mounting systems.
Espinosa said the rectangular wafer size gives the manufacturer freedom to enlarge the cells to close the gap between cells and boost efficiency. Eventually, it leads to better profitability for the power stations. Playing around with the rectangular wafer sizes helps it create C&I-specific modules with slightly larger sizes but lower than utility-scale, differentiating these from those for the residential segment.
The Co-Founder of encentive, Torge Lahrsen discussed the demand-side flexibility using solar and how it brings down energy bills for industrial companies and helps the grid. His focus was on rethinking energy management for C&I players.
Volatile electricity prices put a lot of cost pressure on companies. Renewable energy then comes up as the cheapest source of electricity supply for C&I players. However, it is not always available, hence companies opt for short-term energy contracts.
Offering the company's flexOn solution, Lahrsen said this intelligent and automated control center for energy management enables the C&I segment to use energy when it is the greenest and the cheapest. He claims it can reduce energy costs by 20% and lower carbon emissions by 30%.
According to Lahrsen, considering an industrial site as a local energy portfolio comprising all electricity-using appliances such as heating & cooling, storage, and charging infrastructure, among others, flexOn can orchestrate all relevant energy flows by centrally optimizing electricity supply.
The tool uses artificial intelligence (AI) to analyze consumption and production data by the various infrastructure. In times of fluctuating energy prices, this tool, explained Lahrsen, can help run energy systems at the right time for maximum cost benefits for the end users.
At the conference, Hopewind's Head of EMEA market Shudong Luo was joined by Alexander Sredanovic of the leading distributor memodo from the latter's engineering, service and academy. The duo discussed the significance of making the right inverter choice for C&I solar system operations.
Luo and Sredanovic said Hopewind's inverters provide a tremendous amount of current per MPPT tracker even for the largest modules. It is also protected against corrosion even in extreme weather conditions like high up in the mountains to out in the desert.
Presenting a technical perspective on Hopewind inverters, Sredanovic claimed that there is almost no degradation up to 45°C outside. In terms of the Dutch market where temperatures can reach 40°C sometimes, normal inverters start degrading at 30°C. Hopewind inverters, in comparison, go 50% higher before starting to degrade, thus ensuring higher production at peak.
The duo also pointed to the default Arc Fault Correction (AFC) 4.0 with an AI learning curve that Hopewind's inverters carry by default. This feature becomes extremely significant from an insurance perspective in the Dutch market. Sredanovic says in the Netherlands, insurance companies require the systems to have some kind of arc fault current interruption. In its absence, you end up paying more on insurance.
In Hopewind's case, there is a detection distance of up to 600 meters and a detection time of only 30 milliseconds.
Senior Research Analyst at exawatt, Molly Morgan presented her perspective on whether advanced solar technologies can be cheaper, despite a high upfront cost.
Sharing insights on the latest PV technologies from the latest exawatt whitepaper, Morgan presented the current status of module efficiency in the market today. Her presentation covered all leading and latest technologies, including mono PERC, TOPCon, heterojunction (HJT) and XBC.
The focus of the whitepaper was Europe with modeling performed for both C&I and residential systems using an average system size of 150 kW and 5 kW, respectively.
According to the whitepaper, back contact technology leads the market in terms of efficiency even though it comes at a price premium. Morgan also stated that the advanced higher efficiency technologies not only provide the highest energy generation, but also the best payback time and LCOE as per the whitepaper.
TOPCon, HJT and back contact were also found to have better performance in terms of module degradation in comparison to the previously mainstream mono PERC.
The analysis also concludes that depending on the specific system, advanced technologies can be financially beneficial over their lifetime.
Sharing the policy drivers for the C&I segment in Europe was SolarPower Europe's Policy Advisor Jan Osenberg. Tied within the REPowerEU targets, rooftop solar is seeing a strong push in installations.
At the end of 2017, the EU had 170 GW of solar PV capacity installed which the association now expects to double to 340 GW in 2027. Rooftop PV is taking 66% of the solar market share, followed by C&I with 53%. It forecasts a 10% to 30% annual increase in installations from hereon, but the scope is for much more, according to Osenberg, since EU research claims potential for 1 TW for the bloc.
This is supported by the improving business case for C&I as the sector faces high energy prices despite the problems of high interest rates, high insurance premiums, and grid constraints, etc. This segment is increasingly exposed to negative prices and congestion as several member states pull back support for larger installations while offering limited support for storage.
Due to this, developers struggle to either just optimize the rooftop space for self-consumption, leaving a large rooftop space unequipped, or to go for more innovative ways to develop solar. As building electrification takes place, and the EU needs to phase out combustion engines, there is an increase in offtake for electricity which benefits the self-consumption case, explained Osenberg.
Modeling the impact of the EU's EPBD through its Solar Standard instruction on the C&I segment, Osenberg said the SPE found this segment to generate an additional 92 GW capacity by 2030 following a boost in demand for rooftop solar from 2027 when the directive comes into force.
Nonetheless, with this new solar standard, Osenberg believes solar becomes an indispensable building component just like a smoke detector. This also unlocks a lot of opportunities to collaborate with the construction industry, leading to lower costs for installers, lower soft costs for sales and marketing, and lowering construction process timeline. This will make available a lot more of the rooftop space.
In terms of financing, in general SMEs and larger companies are among the most benefited parties for the financing schemes. Innovative financial schemes such as bundling installations and bonds can also be explored.
Moderated by TaiyangNews Managing Director Michael Schmela, the panel discussion probed the C&I solar market and business developments in Europe.
The panelists were unanimous in their view that while the potential for C&I solar is huge, it still does not have the kind of regulatory backing it needs to get there. They see policy support as one of the main drivers for the growth of this segment.
Cost remains a big driver for the C&I segment to adopt solar. According to Hopewind's Shudong Luo, if the interest rates are low and module prices as well, that's motivation enough for C&I players to go for solar. This is also an opportunity for some innovation in the segment. Luo stressed that the C&I is key for Europe to achieve its climate targets.
JinkoSolar's Johanna Bonilla pointed out that the phasing out of policies by countries that lead to a boom scenario for a while and then the excitement dies down, like what happened in Spain. This shows that mandate is a big driver for businesses and even the residential segment. Beyond policy, however, the need to lower emissions and higher electricity prices are acting as drivers boosting this segment.
Johanna also argued that the market and the manufacturers need to be clear in their separation of the C&I and residential segments as the lines are blurring of late.
Juan Monge of Wood Mackenzie pointed out that even though the EPBD is set to move the C&I segment towards solar big time, member states can get out of implementing it since it is not a law. Since there is a lack of sense of urgency in the market, governments can probably think of adding their own individual mandates over and above EPBD for distributed solar to ensure energy transition doesn't suffer.
The panelists see the Netherlands, the US, Germany, Poland and Italy among the most significant solar markets in 2024. Nonetheless, they pointed to the lack of ecosystems, electricity rates, hedging against electricity price volatility, and grid saturation as the issues to watch out for in the near term.