The World Bank and Global Off-Grid Lighting Association (GOGLA) project 624 million people globally to secure electricity access through tier I and above off-grid energy solutions by 2030, missing the Sustainable Development Goals 7 (SDG7) mark by 516 million, but its realization will depend on a number of 'game changers'.
The game changers that can accelerate the speed of electrification and help meet Sustainable Development Goals 7 (SDG7) goals are defined as greater availability of pay-as-you-go (PAYG) consumer financing, strategic investor engagement, diversified beyond energy business models and an increase in subsidies and concessional finance.
Without these game changers, 516 million people—with a majority in nascent and emerging markets—will remain without access to electricity in 2030, thus not reaching the universal electrification goal under SDG7.
Total annual unit sales of off-grid solar products also need to grow from 32 million in 2021 to 56 million in 2030 to be able to achieve the goal of 100% access to affordable, reliable and modern energy. This includes solar energy kits (SEK) and off-grid solar appliances.
The sector is projected to raise $7.8 billion between now and 2030, but it will be $15.5 billion short of what's needed to reach SDG7. This capital is required to seed companies, foster growth in new markets, promote transition to tier I access for users below the minimum threshold of electrification.
Of this investment, $4.5 billion will be required to subsidize access for the poor and vulnerable by 2030, and even greater amount will be needed to reach the 569 million and 192 million smallhold farmers who could benefit from off-grid cold storage and solar water pumps in India and Sub-Saharan Africa, respectively.
"Crucially, this investment must be deployed alongside game-changing sector interventions to achieve SDG7," reads the report Off-Grid Solar Market Trends Report 2022: Outlook which forms part II of the research. It follows Off-Grid Solar Market Trends Report 2022: State of The Sector as part I released earlier this month (see Increasing Need For Off-Grid Solar).
"With off-grid solar technologies, we have a chance to ensure that hundreds of millions of people are lifted out of energy poverty, and can get the power they need to irrigate their crops, store their food and run their businesses," said Head of Policy and Regional Strategy, GOGLA, Patrick K. Tonui. "The Off-Grid Solar Market Trends Report 2022: Outlook, shows that—on the current trajectory—the most vulnerable people will be left behind."
Complete report can be downloaded for free from the World Bank's website.