Despite grid and flexibility related challenges, the world is likely to install between 341 GW to 402 GW new solar PV capacity in 2023, including 159 GW rooftop PV, and move towards close to 800 GW annually in 2027, according to the Global Market Outlook for Solar Power 2023-27 (GMO) of the SolarPower Europe (SPE).
Launched at the opening of the Intersolar Europe 2023, the report counts the global PV installations in 2022 as a record 239 GW, representing 45% annual growth taking the world's cumulative to around 1.2 TW by 2022-end.
Even as China reported the largest additions globally last year, it was one of the 26 countries that added at least 1 GW annually. This number grew from 17 nations in 2021. In 2023, SPE expects the count to go up to 32 GW nations in 2023, 39 in 2024 and at least 53 in 2025.
The US with 21.9 GW, India with 17.4 GW and Brazil with 10.9 GW were the other top markets in that order, last year. Spain became the largest European market with 8.4 GW installed.
Rooftop solar PV capacity too grew 49% YoY from 79 GW in 2021 to 118 GW in 2022. For 2023, the expectation is another 159 GW.
Solar also made up 2/3rd of the world's new renewable energy capacity installed in 2022. Even as the technology meets only 4.5% of the global electricity demand, its growth was impressive considering significant supply chain disturbances, lingering COVID-19 effects and inflationary pressure caused by the Ukraine war.
In 2023, SPE analysts forecast 43% annual jump in total PV capacity to grow by 341 GW under medium scenario. Yet with improved market conditions, the numbers can jump up to a maximum of 402 GW.
The GMO also predicts 401 GW in 2024 and the deployments growing to a total of 617 GW in 2027 in the medium scenario. It forecasts the world's total operational PV capacity to exceed 2 TW in early 2025 and 3.5 TW by 2027-end.
This edition of the GMO offers more optimistic scenario for quick growth in PV installations in the future as compared to the previous editions of this flagship annual report from the SPE.
SPE's Director of Market Intelligence and GMO Project Lead, Michael Schmela refers to the versatility of solar that enables its deployments in various forms and also its applicability with other renewables and storage technologies for the optimism.
He said, "Grids and flexibility are the sleeping giant of the energy transition – and the giant is waking up. We're installing huge amounts of solar, and we need to be able to use it, when we need it. Governments around the world must make upgrading their electricity and storage infrastructure a political priority."
In a collaboration with the Global Solar Council (GSC), the GMO this year focuses on Southeast Asia and its solar potential. The region is likely to grow 13% annually from 3.4 GW in 2022 to 3.8 GW PV in 2023 and expand to 13.3 GW by 2027 under medium scenario.
The report is available on SPE's website for free download.