The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) says the world risks missing the tripling of renewables target pledged at COP28 even if it continues to install new capacity at the unprecedented annual growth rate of 14% as in 2023.
The 14% annual increase in renewables capacity last year represented a 10% compound annual growth rate from 2017-2023. If this rate of growth continues, IRENA believes the world will miss the 11.2 TW renewables target for 2030 by 13.5%, or short by 1.5 TW.
While renewable energy is on track to overtake fossil fuels in the global installed power capacity, to ensure it remains on track for the 11.2 TW renewable energy target achievement by 2030, the world will need to grow renewables at a minimum 16.4% rate annually.
"Renewable energy has been increasingly outperforming fossil fuels, but it is not the time to be complacent," said IRENA Director-General Francesco La Camera. "Renewables must grow at higher speed and scale. Our new report sheds light on the direction of travel; if we continue with the current growth rate, we will only face failure in reaching the tripling renewables target agreed in the UAE Consensus at COP28, consequently risking the goals of the Paris Agreement and 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development."
Additionally, IRENA has updated its Renewable Energy Statistics 2024 report with some minor revisions to its March 2024 edition of the report (see IRENA Releases Renewable Capacity Statistics 2024).
According to the revised version, global renewable energy additions grew by 473 GW in 2023. The share of solar in the March edition was 345.5 GW which has now been revised to 347 GW.
However, the total renewable generating capacity has been revised downward by 5.2 GW to 3.865 TW due to revisions in hydropower and bioenergy power plants.
At the end of 2023, renewable energy accounted for 3.9 TW or 43% out of 9 TW of global total power generation capacity, including non-renewables. Non-renewable power comprised 4.5 TW of fossil fuels, 398 GW of nuclear energy, 142 GW of pumped storage and 45 GW of other non-renewables.
Solar energy's cumulative installed capacity till 2023-end was 1.418 TW, followed by hydropower's 1.265 TW, wind energy's 1.017 TW and 149 GW of bioenergy. IRENA says the status of solar energy as the main source of capacity is likely to remain in future years. The report points to the regional disparity in renewables deployment.