Utility-scale solar energy installations of around 275 GW DC will lead the global solar PV installations that are expected to grow by 17% annually to a total of 462 GW DC, forecasts Rystad Energy. However, the industry will need to address the bottlenecks of high debt costs, increased installation expenses, transmission constraints and market saturation.
In terms of installations, Rystad says like last year, the rooftop PV segment is expected to grow strong this year as well, a phenomenon that's likely to repeat this year as well. This segment is expected to install almost 190 GW DC, matching last year. Residential solar PV will account for 108 GW DC new capacity of this lot, leaving the commercial and industrial (C&I) segment to add the remaining 78 GW DC of the forecast capacity this year.
It indicates that installations will continue to grow strong this year, but supply will outpace demand.
Rystad's Head of Solar Supply Chain Research Marius Mordal Bakke believes the global solar PV manufacturing capacity across the value chain will far exceed the installations this year. From polysilicon to modules, Bakke forecasts the world's nameplate production capacity will surpass 1 TW DC.
No prizes for guessing that a lion's share of this production capacity will be located in mainland China. By the end of 2024, Rystad expects China to account for 96% of the polysilicon, ingot and wafer production capacity of the world. It will also account for 90% of cell and 81% of module manufacturing as well.
Bakke argues that mainland China will continue to be the world's largest supplier of solar components in the years to come thanks to the imbalance in PV value chains outside of the region where vertical integration is still a far-fetched dream.
The US for instance, points out Bakke, will be able to meet its module demand this year with domestic supply. For the country to achieve self-dependence in cells, it will have to wait till 2026.
The current pipeline for polysilicon and ingots and wafers in the US is 'not set to match demand this decade.'
Europe fares no better as its large-scale manufacturing plans await funding from the European Union (EU) to materialize. The continent will be able to meet its module manufacturing targets only by 2026 provided all expansion announcements come online. The rest of the vertical integration steps are not expected to match the growth expected for modules.
Earlier in March 2024, Bloomberg New Energy Finance pegged 2023 annual installations at 444 GW DC and forecast 2024 additions to grow by 29% to 574 GW DC (see BNEF Counts 444 GW DC New Solar PV Capacity Additions In 2023).