With China expected to install 148.9 GW of new solar PV capacity, global deployments for this power generation source are likely to grow up to 351 GW in 2023 with growing demand, however economic slowdown and high inflation may negatively affect the market, says TrendForce.
So far, the price pressure easing across the supply chain and significant growth in polysilicon production capacity are all signs pointing towards the estimated 53.4% annual growth in installations this year compared to 228.5 GW reported for 2022 by TrendForce.
It will be Asia Pacific that's likely to drive this growth with 55.4% annual increase of 202.5 GW capacity, led of course by China that will exceed 100 GW annual capacity for the 1st time with 148.9 GW, up from 87.41 GW the country reported for 2022 (see China Exited 2022 With 87 GW+ New PV Capacity).
The Asian giant along with Malaysia and the Philippines will experience an annual growth rate of over 40% this year, thanks to supportive government policies.
Europe too will see installations going up by 39.7% annually to around 68.6 GW to be driven by subsidies and tax credits and falling prices of PV modules to address high electricity prices. At the same time, the European Union (EU) is easing permitting rules to boost deployments which is another positive factor for solar here. Germany, Spain and the Netherlands will experience largest demand.
"The lowering of the regulatory barriers will also synergize with the decline in module prices, thereby encouraging the development of large-scale projects," according to analysts. "TrendForce believes the installation demand related to the construction of ground-mounted PV power stations in Europe will return to positive growth during the 2023~2024 period."
European solar PV lobby association SolarPower Europe (SPE) earlier said it expects the EU alone to add more than 50 GW new PV capacity in 2023 (see European Union To Exit 2022 With Over 41 GW Solar Installed).
Marred by the Uyghur Forced labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) and anti-circumvention investigation, the US market slowed down in 2022, but with the Inflation Reduction Acy (IRA) acting as a shot in the arm the country may just double its annual installations this year. Overall, the Americas can grow by 65.2% YoY to 64.6 GW this year.
The Middle East and Africa region will together likely bring online 14.9 GW capacity reflecting annual jump of 49.5% led by the UAE, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Israel. However, growth here is largely dependent on renewable energy tenders and ground mounted stations. TrendForce counts over 9 GW of tendered projects in the pipeline for this region that's either to be built or is being built at present.
Despite the optimism, analysts caution some challenges related to global economic slowdown and high inflation that could derail this anticipated growth. Simultaneously, if governments are unable to provide necessary financial resources to support their policies to promote renewable energy, it could hamper installation pace.