IRENA-led report assesses the progress the world has made in achieving the 11.2 TW renewable energy target by 2030
It believes the current national plans and targets will lead to missing the target by 34%
The report writers recommend NDC 3.0 to include measures that more than double existing renewable energy targets
Policy support, skill building and international cooperation in terms of financing are among urgent measures required
For the world to achieve its tripling renewables capacity to 11.2 TW by 2030, this industry will require investments of $1.5 trillion/year between 2024 and 2030, up from $570 billion reported in 2023, says the 1st official progress report on the energy goals established by the UAE Consensus COP28 in Dubai in 2023.
The report stressed that tripling renewable power capacity and doubling of energy efficiency by 2030 are the critical enablers for keeping the 1.5°C goal within reach. However, the current national plans and targets are set to deliver only half of the required growth in renewables by the target year.
This means that the current trajectory will lead to a gap of 3.8 TW in the pursuit of the 11.2 TW goal, missing it by 34%, reaching 7.4 TW. The current renewable energy capacity of the world stands at 3.9 TW.
Reaching the 11.2 TW goal needs average annual additions of 1.044 TW 2024 through 2030, or a 16.4% compound annual growth rate, up from 16.1% in 2023-2030. Currently, solar PV is the only technology that’s on track to grow annual additions each year to reach its target of 5.5 TW of capacity required by 2030. Its cost competitiveness and short project development timelines bode well for the PV technology.
At present, except for solar PV, capacity additions for all renewable energy technologies are below the level required to meet the tripling target.
In a September 2024 report, IRENA said that renewable energy prices are no more an excuse to reach the 2030 target (see Solar PV’s 2023 Global Costs Were 56% Lower Than Fossil & Nuclear Power).
Additionally, the UAE Consensus report says that the annual energy intensity improvement also must be increased from 2% in 2022 to 4% annually up to 2030. It rues the little meaningful progress made on this front.
It also points to the need to bridge the financing gaps to improve access to capital-intensive energy transition technologies. This investment must also be distributed rationally since renewable energy investments in Africa declined by 47% between 2022 and 2023. On the other hand, 84% of renewable capacity investments in 2023 were in China, the EU and the US, while Brazil and India accounted for just over 6%.
Annual investments in solar PV are on track to meet the $397 billion required each year until 2030 to achieve the tripling goal, but other technologies are under-funded.
Recommendations
Urgent policy interventions and massive investment are required now, which should reflect in the 3rd round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) in 2025 to close the gap, according to the report writers. NDC 3.0 must more than double existing renewable energy targets, which fall short of the 2030 tripling goal by 5.8 TW.
Barriers and bottlenecks must be addressed through policies and regulations, while environmental and social concerns must be addressed at the strategic level.
The report also stresses on regionally diversified and resilient supply chains for renewable energy development. There should be sustainable supply chain assurance schemes for socially responsible procurement processes, it reads while referring to the Solar Stewardship Initiative in the EU (see Solar Stewardship Initiative For Solar Value Chain). Energy transition skill development is equally important, according to the analysts.
“The opportunity is there but we need more nations to step up to the plate by including specific renewable energy and infrastructure targets in their upcoming NDCs, incentivizing private investment, and making it easier to develop and deploy projects,” said COP28 President Dr. Sultan Al Jaber. “We need to think bigger, act bolder ─ and collectively move faster on our energy transition journey.”
Titled Delivering on the UAE Consensus: Tracking progress toward tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030, the report was released by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in partnership with COP28, COP29, COP30 host Brazil and the Global Renewables Alliance ahead of COP29 planned to be held in Baku, Azerbaijan in November 2024. It is available for free download on IRENA’s website.
In a recent report, the IEA forecast addition of more than 5.5 TW of new renewable energy capacity between now and 2030, yet it won’t be enough to meet the 11.2 TW target (see World To Add 5.5 TW+ New Renewable Energy Capacity By 2030).