The EUPD Research of Germany forecasts the US to install 233 GW DC of new solar PV capacity between 2023 and 2028, thanks mainly to the enactment of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Close to 70 GW DC of this capacity will come from distributed solar.
In 2023 alone, the market is likely to add up to 35 GW DC new PV capacity, making it a record year for installations of this technology.
The EUPD's solar installation forecast is slightly higher than the SEIA and Wood Mackenzie guidance for 32 GW DC new PV in the US in 2023 as they expect cumulative capacity to grow from 153 GW DC in H1/2023 to 375 GW DC by 2028-end (see US Installed 5.6 GW DC New Solar In Q2/2023).
Analysts believe the IRA will also lead to substantial investment in the storage sector and expect 69 GW of battery storage capacity to be added during the forecast period, including 10 GW in 2023.
EUPD analysts point out that this remarkable growth contrasts with 97 GW DC PV and 12 GW storage capacity the country realized between 2018 and H1/2023.
With the IRA promising policy and financial support, since its passing in August 2022, EUPD Research counts 79 new and expanded PV manufacturing plants to have been announced in the country along with more than $100 billion in new battery manufacturing and supply chain announcements.
The new solar panel manufacturing capacity announced can power 15 million additional homes annually and create more than 20,000 new jobs, says EUPD in its Market Leadership Study: The United States 2023.
Exploring the competitive landscape of the US downstream players that EUPD says will be crucial to realizing these anticipated installation numbers, analysts place Sunrun on top among top 10 installers, followed by SunPower and Tesla Energy based on their installed capacity, financial health, geographical presence and customer reviews among other factors.
Other leading installers on EUPD's list of top 10 are Sunnova, ADT Solar, Palmetto Solar, Freedom Forever, Trinity Solar, Titan Solar Power, and Momentum Solar, in that order.
The complete study can be purchased from EUPD Research's website.