Wind & Solar Need To Grow 5-Fold By 2030 To Meet Climate Goals

The 11 countries that account for over 70% of the world’s current wind and solar PV capacity additions need to further expand their capacity 5 folds by 2030, or 3 times faster than the current yearly rates, and 8 folds by 2035 to help meet global climate goals, according to a new report.  

The analysis by Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute identifies these 11 countries as Australia, Brazil, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, South Africa, Türkiye, and the US. For each nation, it also offers individual country briefings.  

The report writers call both wind and solar PV the 2 game-changing technologies in the climate fight. “Wind and solar are the bread and butter of the energy transition and represent the most powerful tools in our toolbox. As countries update their climate targets, sending a strong, clear message on the central role of wind and solar could be the defining policy action in getting the world on track for 1.5°C,” said Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare.   

In the near term, till the mid-2030s, wind is likely to provide more electricity than solar in a 1.5ºC aligned transition in these 11 nations. By 2050, solar will become the dominant source, providing around half of total electricity generation, and wind around a third, according to the analysts. 

There is no ‘one size fits all’ solution for these countries to achieve the Paris Agreement goals. Authors admit that the rollout of wind and solar capacity in any country depends on various factors, some of which include expected electricity demand, availability of other renewable energy technologies, the pace of fossil-fuel phase-out needed, and the split between wind and solar. 

In their assessment of these markets, the report writers calculate the wind and solar energy generation capacity needed for 1.5ºC, along with the expected capacity deployment. Their method encapsulates various elements in these individual nations that help link to a global goal of tripling renewable capacity by 2030.  

The authors aim for this report to guide governments as they present new climate targets. The benchmarks presented in the country briefings, they explain, draw from both global and national evidence.   

Markets 

While China has achieved its 1.2 TW wind and solar energy target 6 years ahead of the 2030 target year, it has the potential to reach 4.5 GW capacity by the end of this decade if it can maintain this pace of installations. This would be bifurcated as 2.9 TW solar and 1.6 TW wind. Both these technologies need to outpace rapidly growing electricity demand to force out large volumes of coal in the power sector.  

“The record-breaking success of renewables in China has pushed the country to the verge of peak emissions. But to pass this peak and bring emissions down at the pace needed for 1.5°C, China would need to beat even its own personal best and deploy wind and solar even faster,” according to the report’s Lead Author, Dr. Neil Grant of Climate Analytics. 

When it comes to India, the authors believe the country needs more international climate finance to scale 5-fold to over 600 GW to move away from coal. This can come through grants and concessional finance to mobilize climate capital. Authors argue that these measures are urgently needed to ensure emerging and developing economies can benefit equally from the renewables rollout.  

While the US needs to progress faster than the current rate to meet its 2035 decarbonization target, Germany is also aligned with the 1.5°C goal. 

Mexico needs to install 78 GW of solar and 19 GW of wind by 2030 to get back on track for the climate goals, it has increased support for gas-fired electricity generation through recent policies, according to the authors. Its pulling back of renewable energy support mechanisms, such as tenders, is causing a slowdown in new wind and solar installations. The country would need to add an average of 7.7 GW/year of solar capacity until 2030, and 7.5 GW/year over 2030 to 2050.  

As the country with the ‘largest’ population without electricity access, Nigeria has a huge scope to install clean and affordable energy; however, it remains dependent on gas-fired plants and off-grid diesel generators. According to the report writers, the country needs 37 GW of solar and 17 GW of wind energy capacity with international support and large-scale investments to meet its electricity demand growth. This translates into adding 4.1 GW/year of solar PV capacity on average till 2030, and 9.8 GW/year between 2030 and 2050. 

With a coal-dominated electricity system, South Africa will need to expand its wind and solar energy generation 6 to 10 times by 2030 to align with the 1.5ºC global target. To get there, the country should look at installing 49 GW of solar and 16 GW of wind till 2030. 

Australia has a target to achieve 82% renewable electricity by 2030, but at present it remains another coal-dependent economy. The rollout of solar and wind at present is not progressing fast enough under current policies and market conditions. It would need to contribute 120 GW of solar and 45 GW of wind by 2030 to align with the Paris climate target. This would need an average addition of 11 GW solar annually till 2030, and 14 GW between 2030-2050.   

The 2nd largest coal-fired power generator in Europe in 2023, Türkiye has a significant potential for wind and solar development, and their combined generation needs to grow 3 to 4 times by 2030. The target for solar PV should be 60 GW installed capacity and 30 GW for wind, according to the report. This would be equivalent to achieving the wind and solar capacity targets 5 years earlier than those set by the country’s National Electricity Plan for 2035.  

Driven by hydropower, as it accounts for 60% of the country’s electricity mix, Brazil’s electricity system was dominated by 91% clean sources in 2023. Wind and solar together accounted for 21% of the power mix in 2023, well above the global average of 13%. The report writers believe that Brazil must still make efforts to increase the share of wind and solar in its electricity system as these would reduce its vulnerability to droughts, help decarbonize other sectors, and meet growing demand.  

Although Brazil does not need to triple renewables to stay on the 1.5°C pathway, our analysis suggests that solar capacity would need to triple and wind capacity double by 2030 compared to 2022 levels to meet growing demand, reads the report.  

Electricity demand continues to rise in Indonesia, and it meets a large chunk of it with fossil fuels. In 2023, wind and solar contributed only 0.2% of the country’s power mix, while hydro was at 8%. The government has set itself a target of 34% renewable energy in the power mix by 2030.  

For Indonesia to meet electricity demand growth and transition away from fossil fuels, it would need 77 GW of solar and 29 GW of wind by 2030. By 2050, both these power generation technologies can provide around 2/3rd of the country’s electricity needs, reads the report.  

A detailed overview of all the individual markets is available on the ClimateAnalytics website.