Wood Mackenzie expects the FPV market to grow to account for 77 GW DC within the next decade
It will be driven by the APAC region, mainly by India, China and Indonesia
Europe and the US will follow with much smaller shares due to coverage, distance limits and high CapEx
Supportive policies and innovative tenders for this technology can boost investments
By 2033, the global floating solar PV (FPV) capacity is expected to grow up to an estimated 77 GW DC, with the Asia Pacific (APAC) region staking claim to the lion’s share of 81% or 57 GW DC, says a new report from Wood Mackenzie, titled Floating Solar Landscape 2024.
Within the APAC region, the trio of India, China and Indonesia will bring online a combined 31 GW DC by the projected year. According to Wood Mackenzie Research Analyst Harshul Kanwar, the global floating PV additions will amount to around 1.7 GW DC, with 90% of this growth concentrated within the APAC.
More than 60% of European FPV capacity concentration by 2033 will be in Germany, France and the Netherlands with 2.2 GW DC, 1.2 GW DC, and 1 GW DC, respectively. Kanwar cites coverage and distance limits as challenges for the growth of the European FPV segment. However, Germany’s technical FPV potential on all artificial lakes stands at 45 GW, according to RWE and Fraunhofer ISE (see 45 GW Technical Floating Solar PV Potential In Germany).
One of the world’s largest solar PV markets, the US will account for a smaller share of the global FPV pie with only 700 MW DC capacity owing to its high capital expenditure (CapEx) when competing with traditional ground-mounted solar installations that drive the solar installations here.
Nevertheless, the FPV segment is evolving with CapEx decreasing with rising demand and supportive policies for low-carbon energy, add the report writers.
Kanwar explains, “While FPV CAPEX is approximately $0.13 to $0.15 per watt higher than that of ground-mounted solar PV systems, the recent drop in the prices of PERC and TOPCon modules to below $0.10 per watt has significantly reduced the overall FPV CAPEX.”
Growing interest in this space from leading renewable energy developers like BayWa r.e., Ciel & Terre and Sungrow is also helping drive private investment across various continents.
The report writers list hybrid FPV-hydro projects as gaining traction since these utilize existing reservoir space, help save water from evaporation, generate extra electricity from the same space and infrastructure, and enhance energy storage. They forecast the peak installed capacity of such hybrid projects to reach the maximum capacity between 2026 and 2028 due to longer commercialization timelines.
Nonetheless, this segment is not without its challenges that range from multiple clearance requirements to inconsistent technical standards that have been delaying such installations.
“Recognising the benefits of floating PV and providing dedicated support schemes through auctions and innovative tenders for FPV, is key to further incentivise the development of the technology, enable market growth, and level the playing field among other solar technologies,” adds Kanwar.
The complete report can be purchased for $5,990 on Wood Mackenzie’s website.
Recently, the China Energy Group commissioned the world’s largest floating solar power plant with 1 GW capacity in an offshore setting in China (see Commercial Operations Start For World’s ‘Largest’ Offshore Solar PV Project).
In May 2024, TaiyangNews published its maiden market survey on floating PV technology that covers commercial products available in this space today. The Market Survey Floating PV 2024 is available for free download here.