According to CETO 2025, China may install 5.5 TW to 6.5 TW solar PV by 2060 under 2 carbon neutrality scenarios
Distributed PV projected to supply about half of total installed solar capacity through 2060
Combined solar and wind could account for roughly 77% of China’s electricity generation capacity by 2060
China is expected to achieve a cumulative installed solar PV capacity of up to 6.5 TW by 2060, expanding from 890 GW AC reported at the end of 2024, according to the China Energy Transformation Outlook 2025 (CETO 2025), a think tank research report.
Under the report’s Baseline Carbon Neutrality Scenario (BCNS), the country is likely to reach 5.5 TW cumulative solar PV capacity by 2060, reaching a maximum of 6.5 TW under the Ideal Carbon Neutrality Scenario (ICNS). Distributed PV will account for 55% of the total installed PV capacity under BCNS, and 50% under ICNS, with the remaining supplied by utility-scale PV.
Both these scenarios target China achieving the carbon peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060.
At the end of October 2025, China’s cumulative installed solar PV capacity had already reached 1.14 TW AC, according to the country’s National Energy Administration (NEA) (see China Exceeds 252 GW AC Solar PV Capacity In 10M 2025).
On his LinkedIn page, Apricum’s Frank Haugwitz said that these projections entail annual solar PV deployment of around 130 GW to 160 GW.
According to the report, China’s total wind power capacity is expected to expand to 3.22 TW to 3.34 TW, up from 520 GW in 2024, according to the report’s 2 scenarios.
Together, both solar and wind power will likely account for around 77% of the country’s total electricity generation capacity, which is likely to reach 10.45 TW to 11.04 TW, while renewable energy will comprise close to 92% of the electricity mix by the forecast year.
These 2 technologies will be far ahead of nuclear power, hydropower, and biomass, whose capacities will likely expand to around 200 GW, up to 590 GW, and up to 230 GW, respectively, according to the report.
The authors believe that strengthening international cooperation on energy transformation will help the country enhance its non-fossil energy supply capacity and grid security. They recommend that the country construct large-scale wind and solar power bases in the desert and Gobi regions over the next 5 years as a key priority, while also fully promoting distributed solar PV and rural wind energy projects.
Wind and solar generation vary widely across China’s provinces. The report recommends using a 5-phase classification to assess each province’s power system and shape tailored development plans. Stronger guidance for coal-heavy provinces like Shanxi and renewable-rich regions such as Yunnan and Qinghai is also recommended, according to the report’s executive summary, published by the Energy Research Institute of Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research.