The latest statistics from the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) show China's total national output for polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells and modules in 2023 increased by over 21%. Compared to over RMB 1.4 trillion ($195 billion) in 2022, the output exceeded RMB 1.7 trillion ($236 billion) in 2023.
The global trend of falling prices and increasing volumes in 2023 impacted Chinese businesses as the price of polysilicon and modules dropped by over 50% from January to December.
China produced over 1.43 million tons of polysilicon last year, representing a 66.9% annual increase. During its recent annual conference on PV Industry Review in 2023 and Outlook for 2024, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) said the average electricity energy consumption for silicon reduction decreased by 3.4% and the overall electricity consumption dropped by 5%.
Among polysilicon exports, n-type silicon gained traction, accounting for a market share of around 20% at the beginning of 2023, and growing to 50% by year-end.
The silicon wafer segment produced more than 622 GW, representing an annual jump of 67.5%. Out of this, China exported 70.3 GW with a 65.5% annual increase. Large-sized wafers of 182 mm and 210 mm are the industry standard now as CPIA says their market share was 98% last year. The market is warming up to rectangular wafers as their market share of 10% in 2023 is expected to grow to 30% this year, forecasts the association.
China's solar cell output went up by 64.9% to exceed 545 GW during the reported year. Only 39.3 GW of this was exported, accounting for a 65.5% annual increase. Again, n-type cells are becoming popular with TOPCon and heterojunction (HJT) market share reaching 25.6%.
CPIA summarizes that the average conversion efficiency of PERC, TOPCon, and HJT cells reached 23.4%, 25% and 25.2%, respectively in 2023.
The world's largest solar module manufacturing country improved its module output by 69.3% YoY to exceed 499 GW. It exported 211.7 GW or 37.9% more on an annual basis, according to the ministry.
InfoLink Consulting believes the Chinese module manufacturers shipped 208 GW capacity overseas in 2023 (see China Exported 208 GW Solar Modules Globally In 2023).
Nonetheless, due to significant price reductions across the industry, the total export value of Chinese PV products declined by 5.39% to $48.48 billion in 2023. The bidding price for modules late last year dropped below RMB 1/W, a 40% decline from the beginning of 2023.
As of 2023-end, the association counts China's cumulative production capacity of polysilicon as exceeding 1.88 million tons, 892 GW for silicon wafers, 844 GW for cells and over 861 GW for modules.
The Chinese PV industry saw some panic-driven price reductions by some companies with an increased supply in the market, leading to a decline in profitability. CPIA says as of February 2024, the operating rate of the top 9 module factories was 49%, while the overall operating rate for the module industry was only 23%.