CPIA forecasts the annual solar PV installations in China to drop on a YoY basis to between 215 GW and 255 GW in 2025
The effect of policies with market-oriented pricing for renewable energy plants commissioned after June 2025 is majorly responsible for the subdued forecast
The combined output of Chinese manufacturers across the supply chain increased, but the country’s total PV exports last year dropped by 33.9% YoY
The association cautions manufacturers from investing blindly when expanding their geographic footprint and recommends sticking to stable industrial environments
China, the world’s leading solar PV market, is set to see a decline in its annual solar PV installations for the 1st time in 6 years, according to the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) that forecasts the country to add anywhere between 215 GW and 255 GW in 2025.
With this, China will still be the largest installer of solar in the world as the CPIA forecasts new global PV capacity of 531 GW to 583 GW to come online this year. In 2024, the numbers totaled 530 GW, as per the association.
This will be a year-on-year (YoY) decline of 8% to 22% from the record 277.17 GW China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) reported for the year 2024, although the CPIA pegs last year’s installations at 277.57 GW AC, taking the cumulative capacity as of the year-end to exceed 880 GW (see China Exited 2024 With Over 277 GW New Installed Solar PV Capacity).
Newly installed utility-scale solar capacity accounted for 57% of the annual installations last year, growing by 33% YoY. The 67.8% YoY growth in commercial and industrial (C&I) segment, which added 32% of the total capacity in 2024, shows the growing demand for solar in this sector. The residential solar segment, on the other hand, was down 32% YoY to account for 11% of new installations.
According to the CPIA, one of the major factors responsible for the forecasted decline in 2025 is insufficient grid capacity to accommodate increasing volumes of renewable energy.
At the same time, the country’s new market-oriented power pricing system is also creating uncertainty. The association is referring to the Notice on Deepening the Market-Oriented Reform of New Energy Grid Tariffs to promote High-Quality Development of New Energy, jointly issued by the country’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration (NEA) on February 9, 2025 (see China Solar PV News Snippets: Microquanta Sets New Perovskite Module Efficiency Record & More).
Under this policy, all renewable energy projects commissioned after June 1, 2025, will have their tariffs determined through competitive bidding, with price caps set by local governments based on costs and supply-demand dynamics to prevent disorderly competition. This means renewable energy will compete on an equal footing with coal power generation with subsidies scaled back.
The government would offtake power from small-scale projects under 6 MW capacity on a guaranteed basis till now. But under the upcoming policy, these too will have to go on to the market and compete with both coal as well as renewable energy projects. This will impact the distributed solar segment as well.
Local governments are required to formulate specific implementation plans by the end of 2025. Since the implementation of such measures is not timebound, different provinces may introduce these at varying times, the industry will be in a ‘wait and watch’ mode, prompting the conservative guidance for 2025, stated the association.
Production
In its annual event to assess the Chinese solar PV industry, the CPIA said the country’s manufacturing industry was able to increase production for polysilicon, wafer, cell and modules by over 10% YoY in 2024.
China produced 1.82 million tons of polysilicon in 2024, up 23.6% YoY with a growing preference for granular silicon.
The country’s wafer output reached 753 GW last year, reflecting an increase of 12.7% YoY. The market share of p-type wafer declined from 74.5% in 2023 to 27.5% in 2024, while that of n-type rose sharply from 24.7% to 72.5%, respectively.
China’s total solar cell output in 2024 reached 654 GW with a 10.6% YoY improvement. The average conversion efficiency of TOPCon solar cells reached 25.4%, 25.6% for HJT, and 26% for XBC cells.
Chinese manufacturers produced a combined 588 GW of solar module capacity, increasing their output by 13.5% YoY.
Exports
While the production continued to increase, the country’s total PV exports last year totaled $32.02 billion, with an annual decline of 33.9% pointing to the oversupply situation leading to a decline in prices globally.
China exported 60.9 GW silicon wafers and 57.5 GW solar cells with a YoY decline of 13.3% and 46.3%, respectively.
Solar module exports of 238.8 GW increased in volume by 12.8% over the previous year. According to the CPIA, the growth of China’s PV module exports to 33 countries exceeded 100% including Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Sri Lanka. The number of markets with export volumes of over 1 GW increased from 29 in 2023 to 38 in 2024. The Netherlands, Brazil, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and India were the top 5 destinations for Chinese modules in the reporting year.
InfoLink Consulting pegged the country’s module exports at 236 GW (see 2024 China Solar Module Exports Totaled 236 GW: InfoLink Consulting).
Some other salient points from the CPIA’s annual event are:
Companies must spend at least 3% of the total sales and not less than RMB 10 million as annual expenditure on R&D and process improvement.
In 2024, the number of patent applications filed by Chinese companies increased by about 14% YoY. The cumulative number of applications will account for over 55% of the global total.
Manufacturers should actively use various means to safeguard their interests in terms of intellectual property protection.
Enterprises should strengthen the operation and maintenance (O&M) of PV power stations by investing in automation, AI, and other means to improve the revenues.
CPIA’s Honorary Chairman Wang Bohua commented on Chinese companies expanding their manufacturing footprint geographically, cautioning them to avoid investing blindly, especially in unstable industrial environments.
“With the increasing international trade barriers and strengthened local manufacturing protections, overseas expansion must be more strategic and flexible, avoiding a blind rush into markets,” explained Bohua. “In conclusion, the success of overseas expansion depends on precise strategies and flexible responses to market changes. By seizing opportunities and avoiding risks, we can ensure competitiveness in the global photovoltaic industry.”