Cuba is banking on solar energy to reduce its reliance on imported fuel and bring stability to its electricity generation system
The government has set a target of generating 24% of its energy from renewable sources by 2030
TaiyangNews forecasts that Cuba will reach a cumulative solar PV capacity of 2.5 GW by 2028
Cuba faced a spate of outages earlier this month, all within a week, with the latest on March 12, 2026, that left nearly 10 million residents without power for several hours. These disruptions highlight the structural weaknesses of Cuba’s aging grid infrastructure and a persistent fuel shortage, exacerbated by US sanctions on oil imports.
This chronic instability in the island nation’s electricity supply, forms the backdrop for its accelerated transition to solar power. The Cuban government has begun expanding its solar power capacity, positioning it as a more resilient and sustainable alternative to the existing energy system.
Despite persistent nationwide power disruptions, solar installations have supplied a measurable share of daytime electricity, acting as a partial buffer against grid instability. According to Cuba’s official news outlet ‘Granma’, this expansion reflects both increased external support, particularly from China, and a policy-driven push by the Cuban government to reach 2 GW of installed solar PV capacity by 2028.
China is currently backing the development of 92 solar parks in Cuba, with 35 of them – totaling 750 MW – already operational as of October 2025.
“China’s Cooperation with Cuba in energy sector remains strong and steady, from ongoing projects, such as equipment and spare parts for distributed generation, the 5,000 photovoltaic systems for isolated homes, and the installation of other solar PV parks with a total capacity of 85 MW, to the next project to install another 200 MW and the new 5,000 photovoltaic systems for isolated homes,” stated the Ambassador of China to Cuba, Hua Xin.
At the current rate of installation, TaiyangNews forecasts that Cuba could surpass its solar target as early as 2027. There is also a possibility that additional solar parks may be planned, contingent upon joint decisions made by the Cuban and Chinese governments. With effective planning and sustained investment in solar projects, the country also has the potential to achieve energy independence.
However, US President Donald Trump was recently quoted in the media, saying, “I do believe I’ll be … having the honour of taking Cuba.” “Whether I free it, take it – think I could do anything I want with it. You want to know the truth. They’re a very weakened nation right now.” If such a scenario were to materialize, TaiyangNews will revise its forecast based on market conditions.
While Cuba has been deploying solar for many years, its Venezuelan oil connection kept its solar activities rather slow, adding only a few MWs per year. Its real solar boom started right after the US economic sanctions in January 2025, which included restrictions on access to the US dollar, the reactivation of Title III of the Helms-Burton Act, which restricts foreign investment, and a complete halt to foreign aid funding. All these factors provided a shot in the arm for the country’s solar aspirations, as the government needed an alternative energy source. Cuba increased annual deployment in a single year by a factor of nearly 3 times, from 245 MW in 2024 to around 750 MW in 2025.
In late 2025 and early 2026, Cuba significantly accelerated its decentralized solar rollout, installing more than 10,000 PV systems across isolated homes, hospitals, and other critical facilities. In the first week of March, Cuba announced in its official newspaper that an additional 5,000 PV systems will be installed at maternity homes, senior citizen homes, and financial institutions in 2026. This reflects the country’s urgent push to strengthen energy resilience at the community level.
These distributed solar projects are playing a vital role in reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels. In the course, rooftop owners are also set to save substantially on costs, estimated at around 18,000 tons of fuel per megawatt over time. At the same time, this also helps cushion the economic strain imposed by ongoing US sanctions. According to ‘Granma’, residential homeowners, private cafe operators, and solar entrepreneurs are increasingly installing rooftop PV systems to ensure uninterrupted power for essential appliances and daily operations.
Apart from solar PV, Cuba is also using biofuels from agricultural and sugar mill residues to generate electricity. However, developments in this area have been slow since 2020, as agricultural waste remains in limited supply. The US Energy Information Administration estimates that Cuba produced 6,450 barrels of biofuels per day in 2021, unchanged from previous years.
Another contributor to Cuba’s electricity mix is hydropower, but its use has been limited, largely due to seasonal variability in river levels. Although the Toa River is the only river in Cuba with sufficient flow to support hydropower development, efforts to build a dam there were abandoned due to environmental concerns.
However, the electricity mix from 2023 have changed drastically in 2026, wherein Venezuela oil supplies has been completely blocked by the US. Cuba used to import 25,000-30,000 barrels of oil per day, but as of March 2026 Venezuelan oil imports have been negligible. If it continues, Cuba's electricity mix assumptions for 2026 could be as per the figure below.
Solar deployments have received a significant boost in the country, especially after the US captured Venezuela’s president in January 2026 and blocked the export of oil to Cuba.
Under its National Strategy for Energy Transition 2025 for Cuba, approved in March 2025, the government has set an ambitious target to meet 24% of its electricity needs with renewable energy by 2030. The plan has been designed in 3 stages:
The government is also conducting discussions on the National Strategy for Energy Transition for 2026, which is expected to be released in H1 2026.
On the policy front, the government has introduced a range of supportive measures immediately following the sanctions on Venezuelan oil.
Effective February 19, 2026, under Resolution 41/2026, the government introduced income tax holidays alongside duty exemptions for solar PV modules, inverters, and energy storage equipment as part of a broader policy effort to accelerate the deployment of renewables.
These fiscal incentives have helped lower the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for solar, while also improving its cost competitiveness relative to conventional generation sources.
Individuals who invest in PV systems, whether for self-consumption or to supply electricity back to the grid, can benefit from income tax exemptions for up to 8 years, making small-scale solar adoption more attractive.
However, a key constraint persists in the form of the country’s limited fiscal capacity. Although the National Strategy on Energy Transition has been established, there remains insufficient visibility on capital allocation and disbursement across its various phases.
Achieving electricity independence would likely require scaling solar to at least 50% of the generation mix by 2030. This would provide a cost-efficient, stable daytime supply, while reducing reliance on external inputs. Moreover, prevailing global PV oversupply – reflected in historically low module prices – offers a strategic window to accelerate capacity additions at lower capital costs.
At the same time, the government should also include a battery energy storage system (BESS) component in its Energy Transition 2026 plan. This will help the country reduce its dependency on diesel-generated electricity for evening and night hours. Foreign investors, PV developers, and independent power producers (IPPs) could achieve strong returns on investment by incorporating energy storage components into existing and upcoming PV plants, and by entering into long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with commercial & industrial consumers in Cuba. On the grid infrastructure side, the government has already begun making progress, and further improvements in grid stability could deliver substantial benefits.