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European Union To Exit 2022 With Over 41 GW Solar Installed

Solar PV Displays ‘True Potential’ For 1st Time In EU With 41.4 GW Installed In 2022; SPE Forecasts Over 50 GW To Come Up In 2023

Anu Bhambhani
  • EU installed 41.4 GW solar PV capacity in 2022, registering an annual growth of 47%
  • With supply chain constraints and COVID-19 restrictions easing, high energy prices and geopolitical tensions contributed to the increase in installations
  • The EU nation with the largest share was Germany with 7.9 GW that's likely to add 10 GW in 2023
  • In 2023, the forecast is another 53.6 GW for the bloc under medium scenario, and annual installations exceeding 85 GW by 2026

SolarPower Europe (SPE) counts 41.4 GW new solar PV capacity having been installed in 2022 by 27 member states of the European Union (EU), 47% up YoY from 28.1 GW deployed in 2021, taking the cumulative to 208.9 GW by end of 2022. The association expects further strong EU market growth, adding 53.6 GW in 2023, according to their Medium Scenario.

According to the latest edition of SPE's EU Market Outlook for Solar Power 2022-2026, solar power displayed its 'true potential' for the 1st time in the EU in 2022 driven by record high energy prices and geopolitical tensions, improving its business case. Supply chain constraints and COVID-19 related restrictions also eased during the period, enabling much higher installations than last year.

Germany was once again in the driver's seat having installed 7.9 GW, followed by 7.5 GW in Spain, 4.9 GW in Poland, 4.0 GW in the Netherlands and 2.7 GW in France. The report points out that all top 10 markets are also GW-scale markets for the 1st time and that 26 member states improved their annual solar installations.

Germany is expected to exceed 10 GW in 2023, contributing to a total 62.6 GW to be added between 2023 and 2026 reaching a cumulative 131 GW by end of 2026, while Spain will install another 51.2 GW between 2023 and 2026 taking its cumulative to 77.7 GW, up from 26.4 GW end of 2022.

Going forward, the report writers see the 27-member bloc installing around 275.2 GW between 2023 and 2026, reaching 484.1 GW by the end of 2026 under the medium scenario, with annual installations reaching more than 85 GW in 2026. However, in an their high scenario they see the annual market could be as big as 68 GW in 2023, and nearly 119 GW in 2026.

According to SPE's Medium Scenario long-term outlook, the total solar fleet in the EU will increase from 209 GW installed end of 2022, to about 400 GW by end of 2025, and 920 GW by end of 2030 (see graph below). The authors highlight, "What is more striking is that the 920 GW total market size in our new Medium Scenario 2030 has improved so much that it now overshoots the EU Commission's REPowerEU strategy's 750 GW solar target by 170 GW; the previous 2030 projection was expecting 672 GW in 2030."

SPE also modeled a high scenario for 2030. "Our High Scenario 2030 outlook illustrates that if the remaining obstacles to solar development are lifted, and all Member States set appropriate levels of ambition and enabling policy frameworks, the EU could run a 1,184 GW solar power fleet by end of the decade, which is 58% higher than the REPowerEU goal," it said.

For Europe to get ready for solar, the report recommends 5 key areas namely:

  • Dramatically expanding the pool of solar installers
  • Maintaining regulatory stability as mixed signals from state market interventions could slow down the growth
  • Ensure grid connection availability with flexibility through energy storage
  • Streamline administrative procedures with improved spatial planning and permitting procedures, and
  • Reinforcing access to green and reliable manufacturing which is critical to ensure it is truly independent in its energy requirements.

"A solar-powered Europe can only be based on smoother administrative processes, speedier grid connections, and resilient supply chains," said SPE's Policy Director Dries Acke.

The report can be downloaded for free on SPE's website.