Germany Must Speed Up Wind & Solar Expansion For 2030 RE Target

• Germany is likely to not reach its 65% renewable energy share in the energy mix by 2030, says Agora Energiewende
• Current policy roadmap may end up the country reach 55% target by 2030
• Need of the hour is to push up the annual solar expansion and also focus on offshore wind in the North and Baltic Seas along with onshore wind

Germany has set itself a target to achieve a 65% renewable energy share in its energy mix by 2030 under its Climate Protection Act 2030, while planning to increase the solar target to 98 GW and install between 67 GW to 71 GW of wind power.

However, German energy think tank Agora Energiewende believes the country would clearly miss its renewable energy targets by 2030 achieving only 55% if electricity demand should go up during the period. It suggests either annual solar expansion to 10 GW is more than doubled (from 4 GW last year), or 4 GW of annual addition of onshore wind energy along with increasing the target for offshore wind in the North and Baltic Seas to be revised upwards from 20 GW to 25 GW.

In a report commissioned by the think tank, failing these measures would spike wholesale electricity prices not to forget an increase in dependence on imported electricity which would lead to CO2 emissions in the electricity sector  increasing by 5 million tons to 20 million tons annually.

"To change this, this federal government and the federal states must now take rapid and decisive measures to expand renewable energies. That means we need enough space for the construction of wind turbines, faster planning and approval procedures, a solar offensive and ambitious planning for the expansion of offshore wind energy," said Agora Energiewende Director, Dr Patrick Graichen. "The longer politicians hesitate about the energy transition, the bigger the green electricity gap and the more fatal the consequences will be."

Titled The green electricity gap, its effects and how it can be plugged, the report examines the 65% target trajectory assuming 5 scenarios, whereas the two Sector Coupling scenarios are based on higher electricity consumption of 650 TWh/year compared to 600 TWh for the others:

• Trend scenario assumes current policy roadmap and expects onshore wind power installations to double to 2 GW by 2023, 20 GW of offshore wind turbines by 2030 and 4 GW of new solar systems installed annually. All this will lead to renewables accounting for only 55% of the electricity mix by 2030.
• Focus Solar scenario sees push for solar PV offsetting the wind 'expansion crisis' and is estimated to grow to an annual 10 GW by 2023 and remain at this level till 2030. Offshore wind with 25 GW capacity can be expected by 2030 and onshore wind will see 2 GW added annually from 2023. The 65% renewables target is achieved in this scenario.
• Focus Wind scenario calculates onshore wind to increase to 3.5 GW by 2022 and 5.1 GW annually by 2030. Offshore wind will increase to 25 GW and solar PV will see annual additions of 4 GW, all by 2030. The 65% renewables target is achieved in this scenario.
• Sector coupling with focus on wind scenario assumes onshore wind turbine expansion quadrupling to 3.5 GW annually by 2023 and grow to 6.3 GW by 2030. Offshore wind can be expected to reach 28 GW by 2030. PV additions will be 6 GW annually starting from 2022. The 65% renewables target is achieved in this scenario.
• Sector coupling with focus on solar scenario assumes 10 GW of annual solar power additions from 2023 with onshore wind adding 3.5 GW annually by 2022 and 5.1 GW annually by 2030. Offshore wind will be 25 GW by 2030. The 65% renewables target is achieved in this scenario.

The report is available on Agora Energiewende website in German language.