Installing 2.403 GW for the year, the African solar market saw its annual installations decline by almost 22% in 2024
It will increase the pace of installations going forward as the GSC report forecasts a 42% YoY growth in 2025
Mobilizing finance is a major problem, which needs to improve to help explore solar’s growth in the continent
As South Africa returned to its normal annual solar installation rate in 2024 after experiencing a boom year in 2023, the entire Africa region saw its annual solar capacity decline to 2.403 GW from 3.076 GW in 2023.
South Africa was the largest installer with 46% deployments, even though its share decreased from 79% in the previous year. On the other hand, Egypt expanded its solar market with 29% share in 2024, compared to 5% in 2023.
Delays in project development in North Africa were also responsible for the almost 22% year-on-year (YoY) decline in the region last year, according to the Global Solar Council’s (GSC) maiden edition of Africa Market Outlook for Solar PV 2025-2028.
Nevertheless, it will pick up pace going forward as the report writers forecast the continent to install 42% more solar in 2025. The forecast is based on the assumption that delayed projects from 2024 will come online this year, particularly tendered projects in Algeria. Mozambique, Ghana and Morocco will also drive installations this year.
At least 100 MW new solar capacity is expected to be installed by 18 African nations this year, up from 2 countries in 2024.
Between 2025 and 2028, GSC forecasts a 30% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) with a combined 23 GW new capacity installed by 2028, mainly driven by utility-scale projects at an installation pace ‘never seen before’ in the medium-growth scenario. In the low-growth scenario, it forecasts 9.2 GW, while new deployments can grow to 47 GW in the highly-optimistic scenario.
However, the report writers point out that this growth is just a fraction of the immense solar potential in Africa. Countries here must tackle market-specific challenges to narrow down the power demand-supply gap. These are mainly related to inadequate grid infrastructure, lack of scalability, load shedding issues, currency risks, weak buying power for small-scale solutions and more.
One of the major impediments identified by the GSC is mobilizing finance due to limited participation of private sector investors, lack of low-cost finance availability at scale and utilization of new financing instruments.
Capital costs for solar are 3 to 7 times higher in Africa than in developed countries, yet the continent receives only 3% of the global energy investment. It requires $200 billion/year to achieve energy access and climate goals, according to the report’s estimates, up from $40 billion in 2024.
GSC CEO Sonia Dunlop explained, “The high cost of capital remains a major barrier to scaling up solar in Africa. De-risking investment, mobilizing concessional finance, and deploying innovative financing models will be essential to attracting both domestic and international investors. With the right policies and financial mechanisms, Africa can become the world’s most competitive solar-powered economy.”
The report also lays stress on developing solar manufacturing in Africa to ensure PV becomes a powerful enabler for the continent’s solar growth.
The complete report, published in partnership with Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) and supported by GET.Invest, can be downloaded for free on the GSC website.