To meet the peak energy demand between 2022-27, India will need to install 40.6 GW conventional and 187.9 GW renewable based capacity out of which solar's share will be 132.08 GW, according to the draft National Electricity Plan (NEP) prepared by the country's Central Electricity Authority (CEA).
Among renewables, power generation mix will be 25.58 GW coal, 370 MW gas and 7 GW nuclear. As for renewables apart from solar, 10.95 GW will come from large hydro, 40.5 GW wind, 2.2 GW biomass and 2.7 GW pumped storage projects (PSP).
Further ahead between 2027-32, India will need to install 18.13 GW conventional and 224.9 GW renewable based capacity to which solar will pitch in with 147.4 GW. Overall, by 2031-32, renewables will account for 45.09% share in the country's total energy mix.
Based on generation planning studies carried out for the period 2022-27, India is likely to report installed power generation capacity pf 622.89 GW for 2026-27, comprising 278.38 GW conventional and 344.5 GW renewables which includes 186.07 GW solar, reads the plan.
By 2031-32, India will also require 5-hour battery energy storage system (BESS) capacity ranging between 51 GW to 84 GW.
In comparison, as of March 31, 2022 the installed power generation capacity of India was 399.5 GW out of which 156.6 GW or 39% came from renewables, and 204 GW or 51% from coal. Renewables capacity comprised 53.99 GW solar, 46.72 GW large hydro, 40.35 GW wind among others.
However, the National Institute of Solar Energy (NISE) estimates the country's total solar energy potential as about 748 GW, assuming 3% of the waste land area is covered by solar modules.
CEA says the total projected capacity additions are in line with the national target of 500 GW non-fossil based installed capacity by the year 2029-30 as committed to by the country under its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC).
Authors of the plan estimate total fund requirement for the period between 2022-27 as INR 14.31 trillion ($179 billion), and for 2027-32 it will need INR 17.15 trillion ($214 billion). In a June 2022 report, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BloombergNEF) said India to require investments worth $223 billion to meet its wind and solar capacity targets for 2030 (see India Needs $223 Billion To Meet 2030 RE Goals).
Prepared by the CEA every 5 years under the National Electricity Policy, the plan needs to be approved by the Central Government post which it can be used by prospective generating companies, transmission utilities and transmission/distribution licensees as reference document.
Complete draft NEP for Generation Vol-I is available on the CEA's website for more details.
In one of its earlier reports from 2019, CEA had forecast solar to account for over 36% share in the Indian energy mix with 300 GW installed capacity by 2029-30 (see India: 300 GW Solar Power Capacity By FY 2029-30).