IRENA’s updated 1.5°C pathway says the focus of the world should be on renewable energy-powered electrification across industries
It projects electricity to account for 35% of global energy use by 2035, driven largely by renewable energy growth
This will require around 18.4 TW of global installed renewable energy capacity by 2035, and 38.2 TW by 2050
IRENA estimates annual grid investment needs will rise to about $1.2 trillion to support electrification, renewable integration, and energy storage expansion
In a new report, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) says that meeting the 1.5°C climate target will require much faster electrification powered by renewable energy, alongside a rapid decline in fossil fuel use.
Electrification, it says, represents a reliable long-term solution and a ‘no-regret’ option on the path to decarbonization and enhanced system efficiency.
In its updated roadmap for achieving the 1.5°C climate target, IRENA warns that current global energy systems are not prepared to meet rising energy demand and climate goals without a faster transition away from fossil fuels.
Under IRENA’s revised 1.5°C Scenario, electricity’s share in global final energy consumption should rise from 23% today to 35% by 2035 and exceed 50% by 2050. This will require a global installed renewable power capacity of around 18.4 TW by 2035 and 38.2 TW by 2050.
Global energy storage capacity would also need to increase significantly, from 416 GW in 2025 to 2,530 GW by 2035. In this scenario, fossil fuels are projected to decline from 80% of the energy mix today to 50% by 2035 and 20% or less by 2050.
Electrification will be highest in buildings, reaching 55% of total final consumption in 2035 and exceed 75% by 2050, followed by industry and transport sectors.
The report said electrification is becoming the main driver behind fossil fuel decline across sectors, but warned that infrastructure constraints could slow progress. Around 2,500 GW of solar and wind projects are currently waiting for grid connections worldwide, according to the report. “Upgrades by 2035 and 2050 will not be achieved without fasttracked permitting and scaled-up investment,” it stressed.
Analysts highlight that the global energy transition must not be limited to tripling renewable capacity additions and energy efficiency improvements alone. The need of the hour is to focus on large-scale renewable energy-powered electrification across transport, industry, and buildings.
Falling costs of renewable energy technologies have significantly increased the viability of clean electricity, underlines the report. Between 2010 and 2025, solar PV costs declined by more than 88% and onshore wind costs fell by 56%, making them among the most cost-competitive sources of new electricity generation in many regions.
To support the transition, IRENA estimates that annual grid investments must more than double from about $0.5 trillion in 2025 to roughly $1.2 trillion per year through 2050.
The roadmap also highlights the need for expanded EV charging networks, industrial electrification, building retrofits, and sustainable fuel supply chains to support decarbonization in sectors where direct electrification remains difficult.
IRENA Director-General Francesco La Camera said the world must adapt to a ‘new energy reality’, adding that electrification and the phase-out of fossil fuels ‘must advance together’.
“The speed of the fossil fuel phase out will ultimately be determined by how quickly economies electrify. To keep the 1.5°C goal within reach, the world needs a clear global direction of travel. IRENA data supports the establishment of a global electrification target for 2035, complemented by targets for grids and system flexibility,” stated Camera.
IRENA said the updated roadmap aligns with the framework for transition away from fossil fuels launched under the COP30 Brazilian Presidency and builds on commitments made during COP28 and the UAE Consensus.
The complete report, titled Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels A Roadmap based on renewables, electrification and grid enhancement, is available for free download on IRENA’s website.