New Study Pegs Singapore’s PV Potential At 5 GW By 2050

• Singapore's solar power potential has grown from 2014 when a research work led By SERIS was published
• The updated version sees it can be increased to 5 GW in total by 2050 under an accelerated scenario
• The study evaluates the LCOE of solar by 2030 to come down to SGD 0.042 to SGD 0.077 per kWh, and further down to SGD 0.038 to SGD 0.045 per kWh

The Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore (SERIS) has come out with its 'Solar PV Roadmap for Singapore', an updated version from its previous publication in 2014. Leading a consortium of institutes and departments including the National University of Singapore (NUS) and the Nanyang Technological University (NTU), the study estimates the potential of solar power in Singapore and suggests a possible roadmap how to get there.

Potential

Singapore is aiming to deploy at least 2 GW of solar energy by 2030. In this updated study, the technical potential of solar in the country is estimated at 1 GW by 2030 and 2.5 GW by 2050 under a baseline scenario (BS), and under the accelerated scenario (ACC) it has been updated to 2.5 GW by 2030 and 5 GW by 2050. The ACC, claims the study, would mean solar power would account for 22% of the total energy generation mix of Singapore on power level by 2030 increasing to 43% by 2050.

LCOE

The study also calculates the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for solar in the country, expecting the lowest generation cost in the range of SGD 0.042 to SGD 0.077 ($0.029 to $0.054) per kWh, and by 2050 it should further come down to SGD 0.038 to SGD 0.045 ($0.027 to $0.032) per kWh. Currently, solar electricity generation cost in Singapore is as low as SGD 0.065 ($0.046) for large scale ground mounted installations, SGD 0.076 ($0.053) per kWh for MW-scale rooftop systems and SGD 0.068 per kWh for large scale floating solar installations on reservoirs.

Regarding the LCOE assessment, the authors of the study argue, "This is important as solar power has to compete in the open electricity market with conventional power generation, and the future value of the generated solar electricity is a critical factor for the economic viability of a planned PV investment."

Commissioned by government agencies, the study sees no critical concerns until 2030 for Singapore under an initial grid impact assessment, but for 2050 the country would need work on its grid resilience with greater solar deployment and intermittency in solar output caused by extreme weather events.

"This update of the PV Roadmap was a concerted effort of the most relevant organisations in Singapore in the area of solar PV, energy systems and policies. It gives re-assurance of the GW-scale potential for solar PV in Singapore. Many of the outcomes will be made available to the industry as tools for their daily work", said Dr Thomas REINDL, Lead Author of the PV Roadmap for Singapore Update and Deputy CEO of SERIS.

The study can be downloaded for free from the website of SERIS; it is also available on the website of the Prime Minister's Office and the National Climate Change Secretariat.