The Qatar General Electricity and Water Corporation (Kahramaa) says Qatar targets to add 4 GW of new large-scale renewable energy capacity by 2030 under its National Renewable Energy Strategy (QNRES). The focus will primarily be on solar PV.
It will also add up to around 200 MW of distributed solar generation by the target year to enable more localized power generation and reduce strain on centralized grid infrastructure. This will enhance energy resilience.
At present, Qatar's installed distributed solar PV capacity stands at 9 MW, comprising 4 MW on government customer sites, 2 MW each on residential and commercial premises, and more than 1 MW at industrial sites.
Under the strategy, the share of combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) thermal generation is planned to decrease from the current 80% to 72%.
Kahramaa says this was the crux of a comprehensive analysis conducted through a least-cost simulation engine developed specifically for the QNRES since renewable energy technologies offer cost-competitive solutions.
Even though these targets represent the most economical solutions, Kahramaa says further technical grid studies are needed.
Qatar is looking at increasing the share of renewable energy since it expects the country's electricity demand to increase from about 51 TWh in 2021 to approximately 80 TWh in 2040.
These targets are aimed at increasing the share of renewable energy in its power mix to 18% by 2030, up from 5% now. Qatar will combine high-efficiency thermal generation powered by natural gas that it says will ensure the reliability and resilience of the electricity system.
The recommended power mix is expected to reduce Qatar's average cost of electricity generation by 15% by 2030 and 27% reduction in carbon emissions intensity compared to the levels in 2021, says Kahramaa.
Kahramaa envisions a capital expenditure requirement of around $7.6 billion to achieve the renewable energy targets by 2030.
Additionally, Kahramaa says domestic solar PV manufacturing could be considered for certain components, but the same would be unattractive for wind power due to lack of scale and competitive advantage.
"There are four stages of local PV solar manufacturing: Polysilicon, Wafers, Cells and Modules, and Inverters. Although Inverters and Cells and Modules have a stronger business case than Polysilicon and Wafers, none of the four stages have strong business cases for local manufacturing," reads the strategy document.
However, it adds, "Despite the unattractive market environment for locally manufacturing solar PV components, project development and operations and maintenance (O&M) — which account for approximately 40% of the cost of a utility-scale PV system — could be attractive for localization."
It recommends revising power mix targets every 3 years to account for changes in estimated electricity demand and technology costs. The complete strategy document is available in English on Kahramaa's website.
According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Qatar's total installed renewable energy capacity as of the end of 2023 – was 824 MW, comprising 805 MW of solar PV.