According to an NUS study, Singapore can potentially achieve its 2 GW solar PV target ahead of the targeted year of 2030
It used the ST&D methodology to understand the complex system behavior into the future
The authors recommend the country to explore additional alternative energy sources to meet its growing energy demand and net-zero targets
Singapore aims to achieve the 2 GW solar capacity target by 2030, but according to the National University of Singapore (NUS), it may well reach the target even earlier than 2028. This is the conclusion of an NUS study based on systems thinking and system dynamics (ST&SD) methodology to evaluate the country’s solar energy capacity targets, carbon emission savings, and the overall energy mix.
This methodology is designed to understand the holistic behavior of complex systems over time, according to the study.
At present, Singapore has only 300.3 MW of PV capacity installed with natural gas meeting close to 95% of its electricity needs. It plans a 6-fold increase to 2 GW solar PV capacity by 2030, which is when it also wants to green at least 80% of its buildings. The country also targets to raise its clean energy imports to around 6 GW by 2035 (see Singapore To Raise Low-Carbon Electricity Import Goal To 6 GW).
The authors of the study created model simulations and projections based on key data, assumptions and policy scenarios to generate system behavior under various scenarios. All of these simulations were performed on the policies individually as well as in combination to assess their impact.
The 2 GW target translates into solar PV’s share in the national grid reaching 2% to 6% in 2030, increasing to 3.5% to 8% in 2040. However, the NUS study with its simulations shows that the share of solar energy could reach 3.9% in 2030 and 5.1% in 2040.
“Based on the results of our study, we recommend for Singapore to aim for an 8 percent share of total electricity generation by 2040 to effectively implement Green Plan policies such as enhanced land use efficiency, subsidies, and improved solar panel efficiency. Additionally, Singapore needs to explore additional alternative energy sources to meet its growing energy demand and net-zero targets while ensuring energy security,” according to the study’s Co-Author Dr. Bellam Sreenivasulu.
The study titled ‘Evaluating the growth of Singapore's solar electricity capacity towards Green Plan 2030 targets and beyond using system dynamics modelling approach’ was published in the Applied Energy journal in August 2024.