Solar’s Share Improves In Poland’s PEP 2040

• Poland expects to 27 GW solar PV cumulatively by 2030 and 45 GW by 2040 under its PEP 2040 update
• Nuclear power and renewables to together account for approximately 74% of its installed capacity by 2040
• By 2030 and 2040, onshore wind targets are 14 GW and 20 GW, while that for offshore wind 5.9 GW and 18 GW, respectively

The Ministry of Climate in Poland has unveiled a new scenario of its Energy Policy of Poland until 2040 (PEP 2040) that estimates the country's installed solar PV capacity to grow to 27 GW by 2030 and to 45 GW by 2040 'assuming rational growth.' This is higher than the February 2021 version that targeted up to 7 GW and 16 GW PV capacity for these target years, respectively (see Poland Approves Energy Policy Until 2040).

As against the previous PEP 2040 that targeted at least 23% renewable energy share in the country's gross final energy consumption in 2030, the updated scenario shows Poland to aim for renewables and nuclear power to account for approximately 74% of installed capacity, and cover close to 73% of electricity demand in 2040.

By 2040, Poland's installed power generation capacity will double to some 130 GW. Apart from the share of solar PV reaching 27 GW in 2030 and 45 GW in 2040, onshore wind may have 14 GW and 20 GW share, respectively. Offshore wind too will grow to 5.9 GW by 2030 and 18 GW by 2040.

Addition of other renewable energy sources as biomass, biogas, and hydropower, total installed capacity of renewable energy may grow to 50 GW in 2030 and 88 GW in 2040. Betting big on nuclear power, Poland expects its installed capacity to account for 7.8 GW by 2040 to account for approximately 23% of the national electricity demand.

Updated energy strategy comes in the wake of Russian war in Ukraine making energy sovereignty a significant need for all nations, explained Polish Climate Minister Anna Moscow. She added, "We understand energy sovereignty as the use of diversified sources and own raw materials, including the effective use of domestic coal resources, the development of RES and nuclear energy as well as energy networks."

According to SolarPower Europe (SPE), Poland installed 4.9 GW new PV capacity in 2022 taking the cumulative to over 12 GW, thus surpassing the 2030 national target of up to 7 GW capacity, and called for the country to set ambitious targets (see European Union To Exit 2022 With Over 41 GW Solar Installed).