GlobalData forecasts the UAE’s solar PV capacity to grow at a 17% CAGR, increasing from 6.7 GW in 2025 to 32.3 GW by 2035
Large projects such as the Al Dhafra Solar PV Plant and the MBR Solar Park are expected to drive most of the new capacity
While solar generation could increase from 15.8 TWh to 75.4 TWh by 2035, gas-fired power will continue to be the largest generation source in the country
Solar PV capacity in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is likely to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17%, rising from 6.7 GW in 2025 to 32.3 GW by 2035, according to GlobalData. In 2025, the UAE added 1 GW of new solar PV capacity, at the same level as the previous year. This year, GlobalData analysts forecast the market to expand by 2.7 GW.
Over the same period (2025-2035), solar energy generation in the country will rise sharply from 15.8 TWh to 75.4 TWh, expanding this technology’s share in the national power mix, it adds.
The expansion, according to a new GlobalData report, will be led by utility-scale facilities, some of which are among the largest such projects globally. Currently, the Al Dhafra project is the world’s largest single-site solar PV project (see 2 GW Al Dhafra Solar Plant Commissioned In UAE).
More utility-scale projects are in the pipeline, including the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park (MBR Solar Park) in Dubai, whose total planned capacity has been raised from 5 GW to exceed 8 GW by 2030. It is also set to host the world’s 1st large-scale solar and storage project (see UAE To Host World’s ‘1st’ Facility To Provide RE 24x7, At Scale).
“Solar PV has become the fastest growing technology in the UAE’s power sector. Record low tariffs, abundant irradiation, the availability of land for utility scale projects, and strong policy certainty under the Energy Strategy 2050 framework are driving sustained investment,” said GlobalData Power Analyst Mohammed Ziauddin. “Solar is transitioning from a supplementary resource to a core pillar of long-term generation planning.”
Solar, however, is not central to the UAE’s energy strategy as analysts forecast its gas-fired capacity to expand from 44.4 GW in 2025 to 46 GW over the next decade, ensuring its status as the largest generation source for the country. Gas remains important in the mix to support peak demand, desalination requirements, and system balancing. Nuclear power will remain stable at approximately 5.3 GW (34 TWh), according to the report. Both gas and nuclear power will anchor the supply to ensure reliability and baseload capacity, they add.
Yet, solar’s growth will be driven by the UAE Energy Strategy 2050, under which the country targets a 50% share of clean energy in the electricity mix and a 70% reduction in its power generation carbon footprint.
Ziauddin adds, “Rather than displacing conventional generation abruptly, the UAE is executing a calibrated expansion strategy where solar is expected to drive clean energy growth, supported by firm capacity to ensure security of supply and long-term system resilience.”
The report, titled United Arab Emirates Power Market Outlook to 2035: Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape, can be purchased for $1,495 on GlobalData’s website.