TaiyangNews Head of Technology Shravan Chunduri wrapped up Day 3 of the High-Efficiency Solar Technologies 2025 Conference on December 9 with a panel discussion featuring CRU/Exawatt's Head of PV, Alex Barrows, and LAPLACE's Director of Technology – International Business Unit, Josua Stückelberger.
They explored key market dynamics, technology pathways, and strategies manufacturers can adopt to stay competitive. Here’s an edited summary of the panel discussion.
TaiyangNews: Today’s panel focuses on demand, supply, and prices, and the path to profitable cell and module manufacturing. After detailed technology discussions earlier in the conference, we will now take a broader look at market dynamics, while also touching on technology. Let’s begin with demand. Alex, you expect a short-term slowdown but longer-term growth. Why?
Alex Barrows (CRU/Exawatt): I would not describe myself as particularly upbeat. In fact, I am less optimistic than I was a year ago. Our base-case forecasts for 2026 and beyond, including 2027 to 2030, are lower than before, largely due to changes in China.
From a broader perspective, our forecasts align with a global energy pathway that still results in around 2.5 to 3 degrees of warming. So while solar installations continue to grow in absolute terms, the pace is not sufficient from a climate perspective.
This year, solar is expected to account for around 7.5% to 8% of global electricity generation. There is still significant room for growth even in what I consider a relatively pessimistic base case. Solar will not stop at 8% of global generation.
While major markets like China, Europe, and the US may face slower growth in the near term, growth in smaller and emerging markets can help offset this in the coming years. Still, I hope actual deployment exceeds our base-case forecast, for the sake of global decarbonization.
TaiyangNews: Do you expect more surprise markets like Pakistan in 2024?
Alex Barrows (CRU/Exawatt): Yes. Every few years, unexpected markets emerge, such as Vietnam in the past. These are difficult to predict, but they will continue. Some Middle Eastern countries also have strong growth potential.
TaiyangNews: Josua, from an equipment supplier’s perspective, how do you see the market developing?
Josua Stückelberger (LAPLACE): We expect demand to recover from 2027 onward. Cell manufacturers have reduced capacity, but consolidation has been limited so far. I expect more consolidation in 2026, driven by higher module power requirements, rising silver prices, and the need for investment in advanced equipment.
TaiyangNews: How does this outlook affect the equipment business over the next few years? Looking ahead 5 years, how do you see the equipment business developing? Are there also 'hidden markets' in manufacturing?
Josua Stückelberger (LAPLACE): Diversification of manufacturing locations is increasing, partly due to tariffs. This makes the supply chain more stable. We see interest in regions like the Middle East and Africa, though it is too early to identify clear winners.
TaiyangNews: Despite overcapacity, leading manufacturers continue to upgrade technologies. How does this impact you?
Josua Stückelberger (LAPLACE): Yes, we are in a relatively strong position. LAPLACE has a strong footprint in both back-contact and TOPCon+ technologies. We receive orders for both TOPCon upgrades and new BC lines, which keep our business active.
TaiyangNews: Alex, how do you see the supply-demand balance evolving?
Alex Barrows (CRU/Exawatt): At the moment, I do not see a rapid improvement. Based on current capacity plans and installation forecasts, demand will not catch up with supply in the near term. Supply, therefore, needs to be constrained.
Some self-discipline agreements have reduced overproduction, but they have not been sufficient to clear module, wafer, and polysilicon inventories. Without major intervention from the Chinese government, 2026 still looks very challenging.
Even with intervention, margins may only recover to break-even levels rather than healthy profitability. Some diversified companies can absorb losses in PV while earning profits elsewhere, such as in energy storage.
There are exceptions, such as the US and India, where protected markets allow better profitability. However, for the broader global market supplied by China, conditions will remain difficult. This also has downsides for developers. Very low module prices often come with quality risks, such as thinner frames, glass breakage, and reduced use of sealants. While modules may be cheaper upfront, long-term reliability is increasingly important.
TaiyangNews: Do you see the Chinese government taking stronger action to support prices beyond the VAT cut?
Alex Barrows (CRU/Exawatt): It is difficult to predict. We may see continued discussion around consolidation and anti-involution without decisive action. Alternatively, the government could intervene more strongly, such as discouraging sales below cost or enforcing consolidation at specific stages of the supply chain.
So far, both industry coordination and government measures have been insufficient. For example, when polysilicon prices rose briefly, producers increased output despite large existing inventories. Avoiding repeated mistakes like this will require stronger discipline or government action.
TaiyangNews: Josua, where can further cost reductions come from?
Josua Stückelberger (LAPLACE): We focus on higher throughput and better efficiency, which reduce cost per watt. Metallization is another key area, with copper increasingly seen as a long-term alternative to silver. For new factories, I would recommend going directly to TOPCon+ rather than standard TOPCon.
TaiyangNews: How do low module prices affect technology development?
Josua Stückelberger (LAPLACE): Both cost reduction and differentiation are essential. High module power is increasingly required, so technology upgrades are necessary. At the same time, manufacturers must operate very efficiently to survive.
TaiyangNews: Alex, what assumptions do you use for technology cost modeling?
Alex Barrows (CRU/Exawatt): We model a fully integrated, best-in-class Chinese producer, using inputs such as materials, labor, and energy. Our base case assumes G12R wafers and improved silver metallization, without yet assuming a full shift to copper.
TaiyangNews: Heterojunction seems to be losing ground compared to TOPCon and BC. Do you agree?
Alex Barrows (CRU/Exawatt): Yes. HJT has struggled to compete on cost and scale with TOPCon. It is likely to remain a niche technology for specific applications.
Josua Stückelberger (LAPLACE): I agree. TOPCon benefits from massive capacity and R&D investment, which makes it difficult for HJT to compete beyond niche uses.
TaiyangNews: What optimization potential remains for TOPCon?
Josua Stückelberger (LAPLACE): Further efficiency gains and metallization improvements remain key. In addition, application-specific solutions and regional diversification will create new opportunities.
TaiyangNews: Which technology is most likely to dominate next?
Alex Barrows (CRU/Exawatt): Back-contact technology is likely to gain significant share between 2028 and 2030 and could become dominant if tandem technologies take longer to commercialize.
Josua Stückelberger (LAPLACE): I agree. Tandems still need field validation, so TOPCon and BC will continue to evolve over the next several years.
TaiyangNews: Finally, what are the key checkpoints on the road to profitability?
Alex Barrows (CRU/Exawatt): The near term remains difficult, especially without stronger policy intervention. The US and India offer better prospects, but each has its own challenges.
Josua Stückelberger (LAPLACE): Manufacturers must carefully choose their target markets and control costs. New factories should adopt the latest TOPCon+ technology from the outset to remain competitive.
TaiyangNews: Thank you.
Conference summaries for the 4-day TaiyangNews event are available on our website.