TOPCon is expected to remain the dominant cell technology through the decade, despite a gradual decline in market share across all projections
BC technology is forecast to become the second-largest technology segment, with some outlooks projecting shares approaching 40% by 2030
HJT continues to gain share slowly, remaining largely focused on niche or application-specific markets
Tandem technologies are expected to remain commercially limited before 2030, with stronger market penetration projected only in the long term
As the PV industry moves beyond the initial TOPCon expansion phase, attention is increasingly shifting toward how different cell architectures are expected to compete over the coming decade. The graph above compares market share projections for major solar cell technologies based on outlooks published by ITRPV, CPIA, and Exawatt, a division of CRU. The projections highlight the expected evolution of TOPCon, BC, HJT, and tandem technologies through 2035.
TOPCon – Dominant, but on the Decline
All 3 organizations emphasize that TOPCon clearly remains the workhorse of the industry. In 2025, CPIA and Exawatt estimate TOPCon at ~87% market share, while ITRPV estimates it at a noticeably lower 67%. This lead is expected to persist through the decade; however, all 3 sources forecast a gradual decline as the technology approaches its practical efficiency ceiling. Exawatt shows a sharper drop, from nearly 90% in 2025 to just under 60% by 2030. CPIA estimates a more gradual decline, to 69% over the same period, reaching 54.5% by 2035. ITRPV follows a similar long-term trajectory, projecting TOPCon to fall to 42% by 2035 as alternative architectures scale.
BC – Growing Bigger
Counterintuitively, BC technology is positioned to take the second spot, not HJT. The outlook for BC is the most dynamic across all projections. Starting from a 2025 share of ~7% according to CPIA and 6% according to Exawatt, the technology is on a growth trajectory. Exawatt is the most bullish, projecting xBC to reach a 38% share by 2030. CPIA also indicates strong growth, projecting it at 23% by 2030 and rising to 35% by 2035. ITRPV remains more conservative but still sees a clear rise, with BC reaching 17% by 2029 and 33% by 2035.
HJT – Slow Uptake
HJT has more or less become a niche technology serving specific applications and markets. While its market representation is rather low, the technology continues to see incremental gains. In 2025, its share ranges from 2.6% (CPIA) to 8% (ITRPV), with Exawatt pegging it at 3%. The growth trajectory remains gradual across all sources. CPIA projects HJT to reach 7.5% by 2030 and 10% by 2035, while ITRPV expects a peak of 14% around 2032, before stabilizing at 12% by 2035. Exawatt remains the most conservative, keeping it largely flat at ~3% through 2030.
Tandem – Not in the Near Term
Next-generation tandem technologies, such as perovskite-silicon stacks, remain largely absent in the near term. Their presence becomes evident only toward the end of the decade. Exawatt marks the entry of tandem at 0.5% in 2026, rising to 2% by 2029, and reaching 4% by 2030. CPIA remains more cautious, showing just 0.1% in 2025 and 0.3% in 2030, but increasing to 12% by 2035. ITRPV presents the most optimistic long-term outlook, with tandem reaching 3% by 2029, 8% by 2032, and 12% by 2035. This indicates that while its adoption is delayed, tandem technologies are expected to become a meaningful contributor beyond 2030.
The text is an edited excerpt from the TaiyangNews Report on Cell & Module Technologies Trends 2026, which can be downloaded for free here.
At the TaiyangNews Virtual Conference on Cell & Module Production Equipment & Processing Materials, Markus Fischer, Steering Committee Chair, ITRPV presented findings from the 16th ITRPV, highlighting shifts in PV technologies, materials, and long-term market growth trends (Watch presentation here).