Small-scale space-based solar power could become cost-competitive by 2040 with timely investment and policy support, claims a UK government-commissioned report
Costs are expected to fall from £335–£595/MWh in 2030 to £87–£129/MWh by 2040, making it competitive with nuclear and tidal stream technologies
Systems in highly elliptical orbit could deliver near-constant, zero-carbon electricity to Great Britain with a 95.7% utilization rate
Launch costs are the biggest cost driver at present, but improvements in satellite manufacturing and scale could lower overall costs over time
A UK government study says small-scale space-based solar power (SBSP) could become an economically competitive source of electricity by 2040 if backed by timely investment and policy support. The report notes that early deployment could help reduce risks and clear the path for larger-scale systems.
The report says small-scale space-based solar power (SBSP) systems could provide Great Britain with constant, predictable, zero-carbon electricity at GW-scale. When positioned in a highly elliptical orbit (HEO), they could deliver power to the UK with an average annual utilization rate of 95.7%. This could replace both intermittent renewables and fossil-fuel generation while supplying stable baseload power.
Small batteries connected to the ground-based rectenna would further ensure an uninterrupted electricity supply.
The costs of such systems will initially be high, but the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of a first-of-a-kind (FOAK) small-scale SBSP will likely range within £335/MWh and £595/MWh by 2030, and deliver 585 GWh annually. By 2035, the report writers project the costs to drop to between £154/MWh and £249/MWh, and supply 790 GWh per year.
By 2040, it will further decline to a range of £87/MWh to £129/MWh, to deliver 980 GWh annually. A small-scale SBSP with 31 MW to 52 MW reference capacity will have its LCOE competitive with nuclear and tidal stream technologies by 2040, according to the report’s findings.
In comparison, a 20 MW reference large-scale solar system will have an LCOE of £36/MWh, while that of a 20 MW solar with storage plant will be £42/MWh.
The performance of small-scale SBSP systems is directly linked to their technological development. “It is likely to reduce large-scale SBSP’s first of a kind (FOAK) hurdle rate, contributing to LCOE reductions between 16% and 27%,” reads the report.
The largest cost driver for such systems is the launch, as it accounts for over 50% of the variance in LCOE. However, as satellite build costs decline with better systems, processes, and economies of scale, the overall cost reduction can be expected throughout the 2030s, according to the report writers.
According to the report, small-scale SBSP’s market opportunities may include the UK’s contracts for difference (CFD) mechanism, but it expects limited opportunities in the ancillary services market. Nonetheless, it sees significant global opportunities in terms of supplying electricity to small-island nations, for mining, iron and steel production, water desalination, polar research stations, and data centers, among others.
Technology giants are already eyeing this space (see Google’s Attempt To Catch Solar Energy In Space For AI). SpaceX is reportedly seeking regulatory green signal to launch up to 1 million solar-powered AI satellites (see Elon Musk Says SpaceX, Tesla Eye 100 GW/Year US Solar Manufacturing).
The study adds that both public and private sector backing will be essential to address technical challenges and lower investment risks. It says that developing small-scale SBSP projects now could support the UK’s Net Zero goals by building industry confidence and reducing barriers to future large-scale deployment.
Titled, RAF036/2425: Feasibility of Small-Scale Space Based Solar Power (SBSP) Systems for Early Market Adoption, the report is prepared by Frazer-Nash Consultancy in partnership with Space Solar Engineering Ltd. and Imperial College London for the UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ).