ITRPV’s 16th edition pegs global solar module shipments at a record 703 GW, with 566 GW installed
TOPCon to dominate the market till 2032, while tandem and SHJ gain market share
Due to overcapacity and technological advancements, average module prices declined by 33% YoY to $0.08/W
The year 2024 was another record year for the global solar PV industry as it shipped a record 703 GW of solar modules while installations reached 566 GW, according to the 16th edition of the International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics (ITRPV).
TOPCon’s market share exceeded that of PERC as it replaced the latter as the c-Si workhorse. ITRPV projects its dominance to continue until 2032, while tandem comes into the market after 2026, scaling up to acquire 3% market share in 2029 and 12% in 2035.
Silicon heterojunction (SHJ) had a market share of 8% in 2024. It is likely to expand to 12% in 2035, while back contact concepts based on SHJ/TOPCon will expand from an expected 6% in 2025 to 33% in 2035.
Due to overcapacity in the module market and helped by technological advancements, the weighted average solar module spot price dropped by 33% year-on-year (YoY) to $0.08/W. “Almost all c-Si based products experienced price reductions and price premiums for high power, bifacial or n-type modules are gone,” reads the report.
n-Type modules also have a higher silver consumption due to the use of silver for front and rear-side metallization. In 2024, according to the report, PERC on M10 format consumed about 70 mg/cell of silver, TOPCon and IBC consume around 110 mg/cell, while the share for SHJ was the highest at about 140 mg/cell. However, the report forecasts, “The difference between TOPCon and SHJ silver consumption is expected to fade away in the upcoming 10 years.”
Nonetheless, silver’s use has a direct impact on the cost of solar cells, which means there is a need to bring down its use. In the 703 GW modules shipped in 2024, there were about 8,616.7 tons of silver in solar cells, corresponding to about 27.6% of the world’s silver supply last year.
Copper (Cu) applied with plating technologies or even with silver-coated copper as another approach is of high interest, according to the report writers. Particularly for SHJ solar cells, they forecast an increase in the market share of copper-containing metallization.
The price experience curve continued with the new calculated learning rate (LR) of 25.8% using all historic price data points from 1976 to 2024. Considering only the data points from 2006-2024, the LR is 40.7%.
“Maintaining the LR up over the next year requires cost reduction measures and implementation of cell perfections, with improved wafer material, improved cell front and rear sides, refined layouts, the intensive deployment of bifacial cell concepts, improved module technologies as well as with the introduction of new cell technologies,” explain the analysts.
These improvements will result in improved module area efficiency. Currently, n-type modules with TOPCon, SHJ or interdigitated back contact (IBC) technologies have module efficiencies of 23.2%, 23.6% and 23.8%, respectively. Over the next decade, ITRPV writers forecast module efficiency to increase up to 26% for single junction cell technology based modules. Silicon-based tandem cells can exceed this threshold. Once these enter mass production around 2027, the report projects starting module efficiencies of about 26.9%.
There was an increase in average module efficiency values, though, especially in n-type TOPCon products, which is also attributed to the deployment of rectangular and larger wafers in larger modules. In 2024, module power classes reached up to 720 W, thanks to the use of larger wafers in G12 format.
ITRPV’s latest edition believes that all new plants can process large cell formats from the very beginning.
At the end of last year, the global module production capacity increased to around 1,600 GW at the end of 2024. Going forward, the report writers expect planned solar cell factories larger than or equal to 5 GW annual capacity will dominate the manufacturing landscape in 2025, growing to 10 GW in 2035 to make use of the economies of scale.
There will be room for new factories with annual capacities under 5 GW, even lower than 1 GW, but these would mainly serve local markets and niche products.
Jointly prepared by 49 leading international polysilicon producers, wafer suppliers, crystalline silicon solar cell manufacturers, module manufacturers, equipment suppliers and production material providers, the ITRPV 16th edition is available for free download on the German Engineering Federation VDMA’s website.
VDMA Sector Group Leader Dr. Puzant Baliozian presented the highlights of the ITRPV 16th edition at the recent TaiyangNews Solar Technology Conference.India 2025 that concluded recently (see Live Blog: Solar Technology Conference.India 2025).