- Rystad Energy sees Nordic nations of Sweden, Finland and Denmark helping Nordic region become a powerhouse energy supplier to Europe
- The 3 countries are expected to report a cumulative 74 GW installed onshore wind and solar PV capacity by 2030
- This 74 GW will comprise 61.5 GW of onshore wind and 12.8 GW of solar PV capacity
- Some 40 green hydrogen projects scheduled to become operational in these 3 countries and will account for 18% of European capacity by 2030
- Renewable energy capacity coming up in the 3 geographies will help Europe decarbonize itself, especially its heavy industries
By 2030, Sweden, Finland and Denmark will expand their onshore wind and solar PV capacity to a cumulative 74 GW, up from 32 GW in 2022 with the addition of 12.8 GW solar PV, enabling the Nordic region to become a ‘powerhouse’ for stable, clean electricity at low prices for all of Europe, according to Rystad Energy.
Renewable energy generation in the 3 nations will be led by onshore wind as it will account for 61.5 GW of the 74 GW installed capacity in 2030.
As Sweden aims to become an energy exporter and increase the share of renewables in the total mix to 65% by 2030 and 100% by 2040, it targets to install 30 GW of onshore wind capacity by 2030 along with 3 GW of solar PV. Current renewable energy mix of the country stands at 23% and is dominated by nuclear and hydropower with solar PV accounting for 1.61 GW till 2021.
By 2030, Finland wants to grow its share of renewables in the electricity supply to 51% from 17% now for which it plans to add 15 GW onshore wind to take the cumulative to 20 GW. Solar PV is scheduled to add a paltry 800 MW. Till the end of 2021, it had installed 404 MW solar PV capacity.
Denmark is more buoyant about solar PV targeting to install 9 GW by 2030 along with 11.5 GW of onshore wind. It will also be expanding offshore wind capacity from 2.3 GW now to 8.8 GW by the end of this decade. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), its cumulative installed solar PV capacity at the end of 2021 was 1.54 GW.
The trio are also expected by Rystad Energy analysts to represent 18% of combined electrolyzer capacity for green hydrogen production in Europe as close to 40 such projects are scheduled to come online here by 2030. In March 2022, Denmark pledged 6 GW electrolysis capacity to generate green hydrogen through a single tender (see Green Hydrogen Takes Off In Denmark).
“The Nordics at present produce over 90% of their power (including nuclear) via renewables and are significant electricity exporters to the rest of Europe,” explained Francesca Bjørnflaten, Senior Analyst, Renewables at Rystad Energy. “That trend will intensify as geography, technology and managerial experience in the region will see renewable investment and generation increase. This will be welcome news to heavy industries in the region as Europe seeks to cut emissions.”