Australia To Need 290 GW Wind & Solar To Achieve Net-Zero By 2050

For Australia to achieve a net-zero commitment by 2050, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BloombergNEF) believes that the country will need to install 290 GW of wind and solar energy capacity. Both these technologies represent a $213 billion investment opportunity by 2050.   

Additionally, pumped hydro and battery storage capacity too will need to be increased from around 3 GW today to exceed 59 GW by mid-century.  

According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Australia had over 32.6 GW solar PV capacity at the end of 2023.  

However, the analysts believe the country must rapidly decarbonize its power sector to stay on track to help achieve a carbon emissions trajectory in line with the Paris Agreement. Before 2030, it must grow its renewable energy capacity by 135% to over 126 GW, under the Net Zero Scenario (NZS) of BloombergNEF’s New Energy Outlook: Australia report.    

By 2035, all its unabated coal and almost all unabated gas generation should exit the power system, shifting to a lower-cost mix of renewables paired with flexible technologies like batteries, hydro and gas.   

BloombergNEF’s Head in Australia, Leonard Quong said pointed out that the country is losing time to stay on track for its net-zero trajectory, and that it needs to urgently scale-up clean technologies. The report cautions that there is no room for any further carbon emissions growth in any sector if Australia is to reach net-zero by 2050.  

Quong explained, “Rapidly moving to a clean power system based on wind, solar and storage will be essential to cost-effectively reduce carbon emissions in line with our existing decarbonization targets – but the heavy lifting must be done this decade.”   

Under the NZS, Australia will need to target at least 71% emission reduction from energy-related sectors by 2035, relative to its 2005 baseline for the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC). The NDCs are due to submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change by November 2025.  

Cleaning up power sector accounts for 54% of emissions avoided between today and 2050, while electrification of end-use sectors, including road transport, buildings and industry accounts for another 21%, under the NZS.  

Compared to the Economic Transition Scenario (ETS), Australia’s energy sector investment and spending under the NZS is estimated at $2.4 trillion, only 12% higher over 2024-50, according to the report.  

It will also need more than just wind and solar to reach net zero. The report writers count emerging technologies like hydrogen, biofuels and carbon capture systems for the purpose.  

“While questions still remain about their reliability, acceptability, and scalability – if they aren’t able to be used, emission reductions will have to come from somewhere else in the economy, and likely from more expensive solutions,” said BNEF Australia Senior Associate, Sahaj Sood.  

Under Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Australia is focused on accelerating the adoption of renewables, especially solar energy. It is also backing clean technology manufacturing within the country to support this expected growing demand (see Australia To Boost Clean Energy Technologies).