The Chinese solar PV market is expected to install anywhere between 55 GW to 65 GW additional solar PV capacity in the year 2021, according to a the latest forecast by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA). In the previous year, the country had officially installed 48.2 GW (see China Installed 48.2 GW Solar PV Capacity In 2020). The new CPIA forecast for 2021 confirms an earlier market estimate from March 2021.
During a CPIA conference held this week in China, CPIA Chairman Wang Bohua said the country could add close to 70 GW and 90 GW of annual PV capacity on an average during 2021 to 2025.
The association presented its review on the country's solar market in H1/2021 when it shared that China installed 14.1 GW during the initial 6 months of 2021, which could have been higher if it was not for PV raw material shortage and high prices of solar products. In H1/2020, China had installed around 11.52 GW new solar, according to the National Energy Administration (NEA) (see NEA: China Installed 11.52 GW Solar PV In H1/2020).
Going forward, during the rest of 2021 residential solar and distributed generation capacity is expected to drive PV installations forward in the world's largest solar market.
Local media reports referred to CPIA statistics to share that China produced 238,000 MT of total polysilicon during H1/2021, an increase of 16.1% on annual basis, while the total production of silicon wafers added up to 105 GW (40% YoY increase), with the market share of large sized wafers increasing steadily. China manufactured 92.4 GW solar cells, 56.6% higher than previous year, and 50.5% annual increase in modules whose output was a total of 80.2 GW.
Chinese PV exports to the world rose too between January 2021 and May 2021 as the volume grew to 35.6% to $9.86 billion, out of which 36.9 GW were modules whose exports went up 35.1% over last year. CPIA expects module exports during H1/2021 to have added up to 44 GW to 46 GW capacity, according to Century New Energy Network's PVTime.
Reuters cited CPIA as saying China's module exports may be impacted in the near future due to 'trade and political disputes'.
Notably, the US government has taken a strong stance against reports of industrial clusters in China's Xinjiang, hub of global polysilicon production, of indulging in forced labor of Uyghur populace. On July 14, 2021, the US Senate passed Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act imposing importation limits on goods produced using forced labor in China's Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR). It now needs to be passed by the House and then signed by the US President before it can become a law.
A host of US State departments have also issued an updated advisory to warn businesses and individuals that do not exit supply chains, venture or investments connected to Xinjiang, could run a 'high risk of violating US law'.
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