Chinese Solar Module Exports Exceed 100 GW In 5M/2024

• InfoLink Consulting pegs total Chinese solar module exports in 5M/2024 to have exceeded 100 GW  
• Europe, Brazil and Saudi Arabia were the largest markets in May 2024, accounting for 66% of 21.2 GW imported 
• Weak demand in major markets will impact demand during H2/2024, keeping it steady  

Chinese solar module exports continue their strong run in 2024, having exceeded the 100 GW mark within the initial 5 months of 2024 as compared to 88 GW shipped during 5M/2023. The 109.7 GW solar module shipments from the country during the period this year include 21.2 GW exported in the month of May 2024, according to the renewable energy market research and consulting firm InfoLink Consulting. 

The May 2024 module shipments from China represent a 1% sequential increase from 20.9 GW in the previous month, and a 12% annual growth from 19 GW in May 2023 (see Inventory Draws May Dampen Chinese PV Exports).    

Europe was the largest importer, followed by Brazil and Saudi Arabia, as the trio accounted for approximately 66% of the global market in May 2024. 

The 10.9 GW Chinese modules that Europe imported during the reporting month increased 5% from 10.3 GW in April this year but declined 9% annually from 11.9 GW.  

InfoLink attributes the drop in traditional electricity prices that reached negative in the summer as the reason for the lack of interest in distributed projects. Additionally, some of the existing projects experienced delays due to falling prices in the supply chain, reduced government subsidy projects, high financing costs for centralized projects and policy changes.  

While the inventory levels in Europe slightly increased by the end of Q2 this year, the one change from last year is that now module manufacturers hold 70% to 80% of it. Last year, it was the distributors that accumulated the inventory, point out the analysts.  

"Based on last years' experience, manufacturers will reduce shipments to Europe, limiting the potential price drops from the inventory buildup," according to InfoLink.  

As for the TOPCon modules, the spot prices in May 2024 were at $0.12 to $0.13/W (FOB) in Europe, averaging $0.122/W. Average prices in June slightly dropped to $0.11 to $0.12/W.  

With 4.4 GW modules imported from China in May 2024, Asia Pacific registered a 17% decline from 5.3 GW in April 2024 mainly due to the drop in orders from Pakistan. This Asian nation accounted for 20% of the total Asia Pacific market with its 900 MW shipments, down from 2.1 GW in the previous month.  

"In May, Pakistan was affected by tariff issues, creating a wait-and-see sentiment in the market, ultimately affecting imports. However, the Pakistani government's recent announcement not to impose module tariffs may benefit demand in the second half of the year," opine the analysts.  

Meanwhile, India, Japan, and Thailand maintained their April import levels, according to InfoLink.  

Out of the 2.6 GW imported by the Americas with 12% and 8% increases month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY), respectively, Brazil took 73% with 1.9 GW of Chinese modules in May this year. During 5M/2024, the Latin American nation's total Chinese module imports totaled 10.1 GW.  

"Brazil's PL 4831/2023 emergency act passed earlier this year affected module demand from distributed generation projects," observe the analysts. "Fortunately, the country reduced interest rates from 10.75% to 10.5% in May 2024, bringing positive effects to the financing of centralized generation projects, potentially boosting module demand from the centralized sector."  

With its large-scale utility projects, the Middle East continues to be a strong market for Chinese manufacturers. The region imported 2.5 GW in May with a 7% MoM and 143% YoY increase in volumes. Saudi Arabia was the largest importer accounting for 51% or 1.3 GW of the total.  

Imports by Africa rose 29% MoM and decreased 24% YoY to 895 MW. Both Egypt and South Africa accounted for 29% share each.  

Weak demand in some of the major markets will keep import levels steady over the 2nd half of 2024, with reduced numbers in India and Brazil, according to InfoLink analysts.  

Recently, leading Chinese solar PV manufacturer LONGi admitted that 2024 is a very difficult year for the company as well as the industry due to a major imbalance in demand and supply. It sees the industry entering a stage of deep adjustment to sail through (see LONGi: 2024 Difficult Year For Company & Industry).