Solar PV module prices in China are likely to drop by around 15% annually between Q4/2022 and Q4/2023 as new polysilicon capacity starts to come online, breaking the supply chain bottleneck, according to Clean Energy Associates (CEA) that also sees the decline to slow down from 2024 onward as 'margins compress at all supply chain stages'.
New polysilicon capacity will largely remain concentrated in China, especially for polysilicon and ingot/wafer capacity even as strong non-China cell and module growth plans take shape, it points out.
In its PV Price Forecasting Report Q4-2022, CEA analysts see module pricing decreasing by 10% in Southeast Asia from Q1/2023 and Q1/2024 as key suppliers return to operation after Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) related disruptions.
In Southeast Asia, pricing will decrease by another 10% between Q1/2024 and Q1/2025 as a bulk of new capacity comes up across Southeast Asia and India. Analysts add, "The volume of new capacity in India and the United States will dictate pricing trends for US oriented modules. However, new supplier plans continue to outpace US installation forecasts (and local market forecasts in the case of India/Southeast Asia), foretelling a future glut in US supply."
In terms of technology, TOPCon will become the 'default utility-scale module' as PERC is offered at an increasingly discounted rate until it is retired, added CEA. TOPCon also has a better standing compared to heterojunction (HJT) since it has lower capex, simpler manufacturing and comparable efficiency.
Complete report can be purchased from the CEA website.
The CEA analysis follows similar analysis for polysilicon from Rethink Energy and Trendforce (see Polysilicon Prices To Fall 'Steeply' By 2023-Start and Upstream Solar PV Prices Starting To Go Down).
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