Europe May Source Up To 24 GW Clean Energy From North Africa

At the current pace of energy transition in Europe, the continent is likely to have 73% of its electricity come from clean energy sources by 2035. This will most likely comprise up to 24 GW of clean energy supplied by North Africa through subsea interconnectors, says Rystad Energy.  

Currently, North Africa has more than 350 GW of solar PV and onshore wind projects at various stages of development, and over 8 GW of operational capacity.   

The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of both onshore wind and solar PV technologies has also declined over the last decade to below $50/MWh, from $55/MWh to $70/MWh. This, according to the analysts, presents a compelling case for renewable energy supply from North Africa to Europe.   

“Solar panels in sun-drenched North Africa can triple their yield compared to those in Europe, benefiting from ample space for such projects. Positioned within the Earth's solar belt, the region's daily photovoltaic power output ranges from 4.8 to 5.6 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per kilowatt-peak (kWp), compared to 3.6 to 4.8 kWh per kWp in Europe,” explains Rystad. 

Existing projects 

At present, Morocco is the only African nation connected to Europe’s Spain via 2 subsea cables of 700 MW each. More such connections are coming up with, for instance, the Xlinks UK-Morocco project proposed in September 2021 by Xlinks (see 3.6 GW RE From Morocco To Great Britain). 

According to Rystad analysts, this Xlinks project will establish 11.5 GW of intermittent renewable energy capacity, 22.5 GWh of battery energy storage, and a 3.6 GW subsea interconnection between the UK and Morocco.  

This is just one of the several such initiatives planned including the Greece-Egypt Electrical Interconnection (GREGY) project to supply 3 GW of renewable energy to Greece from projects in Egypt. Yet another similar project is ELMED, which will connect Italy and Tunisia.  

Analysts calculate these 3 projects alone will require about 7.2 GW of interconnector capacity and 23 GW of renewable capacity to be established in North Africa for Europe. The latter will comprise 13.5 GW of solar PV and 9.5 GW of onshore wind worth over $27.5 billion, altogether capable of supplying close to 55 TWh/year at maximum capacity.  

This will account for 1.6% of Europe’s current overall power generation, and replace about 6% of the continent’s fossil-fuel-based power generation.   

Challenges  

However, there are challenges to such projects being realized on time. North Africa has limited local manufacturing capacity; hence, it remains dependent on imports to meet the demands from solar and wind energy markets. This reason alone exposes it to volatile prices and supply chain risks. Not just these 2 technologies, North Africa also does not have enough capacity for high-voltage direct current (HVDC) cables.  

Rystad projects that the demand for HVDC and extra-high-voltage (EHV) subsea cables will exceed 75,000 kms by 2030. However, as of 2023, Europe produces more than 50% of these cables, with approximately 9,000 kilometers currently in circulation globally. New manufacturing plants are anticipated to raise this supply to around 16,000 kilometers by 2030.   

Other problems may range from financial hurdles to collaboration among multiple suppliers and contractors. The need of the hour is to ensure the concurrent development of onshore wind and solar PV projects to help minimize delays and address issues related to cable integrity and storage costs.   

The Senior Analyst of Renewables & Power Research, Rystad Energy, Nivedh Das Thaikoottathil said, “North Africa's renewable energy potential aligns well with Europe's goal of reducing reliance on Russian natural gas. The region’s geographic proximity makes it a natural fit for buyer-seller relationships, leading to large-scale solar and wind projects, along with subsea cables across the Mediterranean and even to the UK.”